NEWSLETTER
The best football analysis comes when data, narrative, and supporting video evidence are used together to put forth a fair and honest assessment. And when it comes to Bears QB Justin Fields, those signs point in one direction: The rookie has been put in an impossible position (which is not to say he’s absolved of all mistakes!).
Misfired throws that go high, wide, short, or low are not excused. Holding onto the ball too long, not letting a play develop, or other errors in judgement we’ve seen are not wiped away. But there is an overwhelming pile of evidence that the failures around Fields are cutting his legs out from underneath him, preventing success, improvement, and just plain old development before it even gets a chance to get going. And that’s scarier than the Halloween display your neighbors are putting together as we speak.
I mean, there is just so much to take away from the data below:
• Michael David Smith points out that Justin Fields has been sacked more than any other QB in the league, despite rankings 30th(!) in pass attempts. In fact, Fields is sacked 14.4% of the time he drops back to pass, while no other QB in the NFL is even at 10%.
• Steve Palazzolo has a twist on that data, noting that Fields is sacked on 33.3% of pressured drop backs, which is highest in the NFL (Baker Mayfield is the only other QB above 30%). And with a tip of the hat to @DownBadBears, I’ll add that Lachavious Simmons posted a 0.0 pass blocking grade this past Sunday. Zero. Point. Zero.
• To that end, Christian Williams chimes in, explaining that just 14% of Fields sacks have been “on him,” (which is to say credited only to the QB), which ranks 15th in the NFL, better than Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence for comparison. Meanwhile, he’s got the 11th highest rate of sacks where the offensive line shoulders responsibility.
• You want to talk about pressure? NextGen Stats has us covered in that department, too. In short, Fields has a 20.9% chance of being pressured three seconds after the snap, ranking as the worst mark in the NFL since he took over as the starter.
• Furthermore, NextGen Stats reports that there’s a 50/50 chance Fields will be pressured before making a pass attempt just 3.8 seconds after the snap, which is a half-second worse than the NFL average (4.3 seconds). Not a half-second worse than some of the best teams, a half-second worse than AVERAGE. That is awful.
And it goes on, with additional context, both historical and new:
In 2020, Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles finished 4th and 5th, respectively, in the % of passes thrown into tight coverage. In 2021, Justin FIelds is currently 2nd in that stat.
Either all 3 QBs suck at finding open targets, or nobody is getting open. Via @NextGenStats
— Johnathan Wood (@Johnathan_Wood1) October 25, 2021
This is pretty telling. More play action please. #JustinFields pic.twitter.com/ajjKI6sQZG
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) October 25, 2021
So what does all of this information mean? Well, first and foremost, the Chicago Bears’ offensive line is overwhelmed across the board. Secondly, the scheme isn’t helping matters. Thirdly, the mismatch in personnel that doesn’t fit the offense’s strengths (or the strong points of the quarterback, for that matter). And in the end, we’re dissecting data showing a QB feeling heat in a way he has never felt before arriving in the NFL (and that pretty much no other quarterbacks have to face, at least this season).
And don’t expect the tape to tell a different story. In fact, it confirms our biggest fears. Nate Tice does a wonderful job presenting narrative busting clips with captions written with tongue firmly planted in cheek:
damn he just locks onto his receivers for so long pic.twitter.com/mkO2bMOr7i
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 25, 2021
ITS 4TH DOWN GET RID OF THE BALL JUSTIN HOW DID YOU NOT EXPECT THE DEFENSE TO RUN THE ROUTES FOR YOUR RECEIVERS pic.twitter.com/Im3TvhrSTI
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 25, 2021
Can't believe we have to do this with rookie QBs but it's never as good as it seems and it's never as bad.
This was less than 15 minutes of me going through the TV copy highlights finding these plays. Do better. pic.twitter.com/BnKTn2kXSc
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 25, 2021
Ultimately, we land with similar sentiments to the ones expressed here:
Changes need to made ASAP w/ #Bears before the ruin Fields. @danorlovsky7 & @Realrclark25 speaking facts. #NFL pic.twitter.com/At6xmA2qKm
— Jerry Hairston, Jr. (@TheRealJHair) October 25, 2021
There is a clear need for changes.
And while there might be mounting frustrations within ownership or upper management, nothing can change unless someone at the top gets the ball rolling. In the meantime, coaches and players like should be working to fix the issues presented above. It’s not as if there aren’t numbers and worthwhile tape to study highlighting what needs to be repaired before the Bears’ upcoming game against the Niners.
Michael Cerami contributed to this post.
