NEWSLETTER
The 2024 Valero Texas Open serves as a final tune-up for some golfers before the prestigious Masters Tournament at Augusta National. This year’s Valero boasts an impressive field, with six of the top 12 ranked players in the OWGR teeing it up in San Antonio. It’s also a crucial opportunity for those not qualified for the Masters to earn their spot with a win.
The Greg Norman-designed course at TPC San Antonio presents a unique challenge. While long and demanding (over 7,400 yards), accuracy is more important than pure distance. The fairways are narrow and unforgiving, but the rough is surprisingly forgiving. This allows players to recover from wayward drives, often landing in natural hazards like rocky areas or tall grass.
Despite the forgiving rough, approach play remains paramount. The long layout necessitates frequent use of both long irons and wedges. Precise wedge work is crucial on the Par-5s, and holding greens with long irons can be tricky, particularly in windy conditions. Scrambling ability is also essential for success.
Interestingly, data suggests that general accuracy off the tee isn’t a major factor at TPC San Antonio. The forgiving rough makes it only 9% harder to hit the green in regulation compared to the fairway. Even more surprising, birdie percentages are actually higher when hitting the second shot from the rough than from the fairway!
This unique characteristic makes TPC San Antonio one of the toughest courses for gaining strokes on approach. The heavily guarded greens, often elevated and lacking bailout areas, demand precise shot execution. Players need to loft their approaches onto specific sections of the undulating greens to get close to the pin.
While around-the-green play becomes less important when scoring is easier due to calmer winds, the weather forecast will dictate its weighting in player strategies. The course’s Poa trivialis greens offer challenges primarily through their contours and slopes, impacting approach shots more than putting. TPC San Antonio boasts a mid-range putting difficulty with slower greens compared to other Tour venues.
Remember to head to Betsperts Golf and check out The Rabbit Hole, a unique, officially licensed, fully customizable PGA Tour data search engine. The Rabbit Hole has over 25 metrics that cannot be found or customized anywhere else, along with 40+ course data filters and conditions unique to Betsperts Golf’s tool.
We’ve partnered with our friends at VividPicks to give new users full premium access for just $5!
2024 Valero Texas Open Sleepers and Longshots
Nicolai Hojgaard 80/1 (FanDuel)
A solo second-place finish at Torrey Pines kicked off Nicolai Hojaard’s PGA Tour season with a bang, but he’s scuffled since. This is a bet on overall talent versus current form, and the price is very appealing at 80/1.
Hojgaard’s an elite driver, sacrificing very little in terms of accuracy while being one of the longest players on Tour. He’s also exceptionally strong from the most common scoring range, with approach shots from 150-200 yards out. Now, TPC San Antonio forces more wedges in hand than your standard event, but its length also brings the 175-200 range into play more frequently as well. Hojgaard is gaining 0.105 strokes per shot on approach shots from this range, the best rate on Tour.
Austin Eckroat 90/1 (FanDuel)
Austin Eckroat is dialed in with his irons right now, gaining at least a stroke per round on average over his past four events. One of those events, the Cognizant Classic, was Eckroat’s first PGA Tour, which punched his ticket to next week’s Masters.
He’s going to put himself in position to be aggressive off the tee because he’s a tremendously accurate driver. His success and the range of that success are dictated by his short game. He’s lost strokes putting in four of his past five events, but in the one where he gained strokes (+0.96), he won.
Doug Ghim 100 (FanDuel)
It’s impossible to build a data-based stats model on The Rabbit Hole right now and not get a favorable ranking for Doug Ghim. His consistency tee-to-green, the most bankable skill set for any golfer, carries a lot of weight week in and week out. He’s struggled a bit over his past two starts, but he’s finished T16 or better in five of his past seven starts. Those five events were on uniquely different layouts, indicating that he’s just playing good golf right now rather than getting lucky with a string on ideal course fits.
He’s way down the betting board at 100/1, and deservedly so, considering he’s still looking for his first PGA Tour win.
