NASCAR Dover Odds & Picks: Love or Hate Him, Denny Hamlin is a Great Bet at the Wurth 400

The Monster Mile roars to life today as the NASCAR Cup Series makes its annual stop at Dover Motor Speedway. So before the green flag drops at the Concrete Jungle, let’s take a quick look at the post-qualifying Wurth 400 odds

NASCAR Dover Odds and Picks

Qualifying for the 2024 Wurth 400 was a nail-biter played out in cool temperatures that took a toll on tires. Kyle Busch, hungry for his first win of the season, emerged victorious, clinching the pole position with a blistering lap. This marked a significant milestone for Busch, securing his first pole of 2024 and breaking a tie for 22nd most poles in NASCAR history.  However, the spotlight wasn’t all sunshine and roses with multiple drivers either spinning out or posting disappointing lap times resulting in poor starting positions.

NASCAR Dover Odds

Apr 27, 2024; Dover, Delaware, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Busch stands with the Busch Light Pole Award after winning the pole during qualifying for the Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
*Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Despite looking average at best in practice, and qualifying outside the top 20, Kyle Larson still sits as the Wurth 400 favorite. Following Larson are HMS teammate William Byron +600 and the JGR duo of Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin who are both +650 to win the race. Pole-sitter Kyle Busch saw a significant bump from his pre-practice Wurth 400 odds up to 12-1 to find victory lane for the first time this season. Take a look at the entire post-qualifying odds board from DraftKings Sportsbook below.

DriverOdds to Win
Kyle Larson+400
William Byron+600
Denny Hamlin+650
Martin Truex Jr.+650
Ryan Blaney+900
Ross Chastain+900
Kyle Busch+1200
Tyler Reddick+1400
Chase Elliott+1400
Alex Bowman+1400
Ty Gibbs+1600
Joey Logano+2200
Christopher Bell+2200
Chris Buescher+2500
Chase Briscoe+3000
Bubba Wallace+4000
Brad Keselowski+4000
Josh Berry+5000
Noah Gragson+6500
Michael McDowell+8000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+8000
Daniel Suarez+13000
Carson Hocevar+13000
Jimmie Johnson+15000
Austin Dillon+15000
Austin Cindric+15000
A.J. Allmendinger+15000
Ryan Preece+20000
John Hunter Nemechek+20000
Todd Gilliland+25000
Corey Lajoie+30000
Corey Heim+30000
Zane Smith+50000
Harrison Burton+50000
Justin Haley+60000
Daniel Hemric+80000
Kaz Grala+100000
*Odds current at time of publication

Wurth 400 Odds – Post-Qualifying Bets

Apr 27, 2024; Dover, Delaware, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin looks on during practice and qualifying for the Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
*Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Finding bets I like this week was much easier than last week for the Geico 500 from Talladega where pretty much anything was possible. For the Monster Mile, I’m using track history, and racecraft from Las Vegas and Bristol this season to help make my picks. Here are a couple of my favorite Wurth 400 bets to make before we go green.

Daniel Suarez Top 10 +600 (BetRivers)

I’m getting a little risky here but Suarez’s overall career at Dover in top-tier equipment tells a story of a perennial top 10 contender. This includes five top 10 finishes in 11 career races at The Monster Mile with three other results of 11th or 14th. Yes, he’ll have to make his way around some of the “squirrels” and avoid getting his nuts busted but the price is long enough to keep risk low. I’m always a fan of Mi Amigo especially when I get a price like this at a track he’s been pretty darn good at in the past.

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Denny Hamlin To Win +650 (Caesars & DraftKings)

Denny is on a fu@$ing mission this year and it’s all about winning races from here on out until the playoffs. With two victories already in tow, the 11 team has a lot more leeway than many others and can “go for broke” as we saw in Texas two weeks ago. He’s won here before and unloaded with tremendous speed posting fantastic practice splits and starting 6th. It’s a short number but one that is warranted based on his current season and history here.

Drivers on Lead Lap at Finish Under 15.5 -115 (Caesars)

F it! I’m doing it again because the data says so. Of the last ten 400-lap races on the Monster Mile, only ONE has seen more than 15 cars finish on the lead lap (2021). And if you include the two 311-lap races at Dover in 2020, this prop has actually hit in TEN of the last twelve races. The first two times I played this market based on the data it was looking great until very late race cautions crushed both. So late in the final stage, make sure you’re praying for the race to, as a friend in the NASCAR betting community has coined, “STAY GREEN!”

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written by

Brian is just a regular guy whose first passion was sports. He's either been playing, watching, now working in, and recreationally betting on sports for over 30 years. His favorite sports to bet are Football (NFL/NCAAF), College Basketball, and the NASCAR Cup Series. In addition to being a content contributor here at Bleacher Nation, Brian co-hosts the Angle of Pursuit Nascar Betting Podcast , & is also the FantasyLifeApp breaking news moderator/manager.

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