NEWSLETTER
Back in the rotation after six+ week absence, Marcus Stroman will make one of the Chicago Cubs’ most important starts of the season on Thursday against the Braves. And then, if things go well this week, he will be slated to make one of the starts in the Wild Card series – also pretty important!
Stroman’s performance is important for the Cubs’ success, primarily, but it could also be important for his own future.
As you’ll no doubt recall, Stroman’s current contract with the Cubs includes the ability to opt out after this season, or stick around for $21 million in 2024. Up until his midseason struggles, it was looking like a lock that Stroman, 32, would opt out and hit up free agency for a multi-year score. But with those struggles, plus a hip injury plus a rib cage injury, it’s now far from a lock that he opts out. With a particularly strong group of starting pitcher free agents this year, it’s possible he finds the market is not better than it would be for him next year if he opted in and hit free agency after 2024.
To that end, how Stroman performs on Thursday and in the postseason, if eligible, could go a long way toward impacting his market and his decision. If he looks fully healthy and fully effective, it’s conceivable that some teams would see his midseason swoon as a fluke of injury that, while not a good thing, may not repeat in the years ahead. Stroman was very, very good in the first half.
Ah, but has Stroman already made up his mind? In addition to the uneven season and crowded market, Stroman may want to return to the Cubs because he simply may want to return to the Cubs. If he does see a monster deal out there in free agency, maybe he would like to stick with a team he knows well, where he’s had some fantastic stretches of performance. It’s like a one-year pillow contract.
Two recent sources suggest Stroman sticking around with the Cubs for 2024 is a strong possibility.
From Patrick Mooney at The Athletic:
Stroman’s public lobbying for a contract extension probably revealed some apprehension about how he would be viewed on the free-agent market, as well as an appreciation for his setup with the Cubs. It appears to be highly likely that Stroman will opt into his $21 million salary for next season.
And from Bob Nightengale at USA Today:
Chicago Cubs starter Marcus Stroman, who was planning to opt out of the final year of his contract that will pay him $21 million next season, now is expecting to stay in Chicago without an extension.
That’s where I would’ve landed at this moment, too, purely from a speculative standpoint. The way this year has played out, and the opportunity to hit the market again after one (well-paying) season in a familiar place … it just feels like sticking with the Cubs for another season would be the right move for Stroman.
Which would certainly not be a bad outcome for the Cubs, who have a whole lot of young pitching coming, but not so much that you can’t afford to have a quality starter back on a one-year deal.
On the year, Stroman has posted a 3.88 ERA (11% better than league average) over 134.2 innings, though the best of that performance obviously came before July. By FIP, though, he’s actually been 19% better than league average, and his contact-management has actually been really good this season. So there might be a little bad luck baked into that ERA.
If Stroman does return, and if the Cubs pick up Kyle Hendricks’ reasonable team option, you’d be looking at a starting pitching mix that includes Stroman, Hendricks, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly (I doubt he opts out), Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and maybe Hayden Wesneski. Eventually Ben Brown and Cade Horton could get looks, too. You love to have that many options internally, and it could even set the Cubs up well to go after ONLY a top-tier starting pitcher if the right guy takes the right deal (instead of having to spend a lot of money on a middle-tier starter).
Or, hey, if there were some fantastic starting pitcher out there who has to miss 2024 as a starter (but maybe could hit or something in the meantime), that’d be a PERFECT fit ….
