NEWSLETTER
MLB Rumors — The Los Angeles Dodgers largely sat out last offseason with a clear eye on signing Shohei Ohtani this winter. And indeed, according to the LA Times, Ohtani will be the team’s “top priority,” and they feel “cautiously optimistic” about their chances of signing him.
All of which is a good reminder: Despite the latest Shohei Ohtani rumors (Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, etc.), the Dodgers still do make the most sense. They have the geographic advantage, they have just $135M in payroll commitments for next season, they are perennial contenders, they are a historically notable franchise, and they have the financial might to match any offer he might get. I think it’s become a little too easy to lose sight of just how favored they really are.
(The one and only caveat is that the Dodgers have been pretty against those uber-long deals over the past decade, preferring instead high AAVs over shorter terms. So if Ohtani wants the Bryce Harper treatment, he might not find the Dodgers offer the most attractive. Then again, the Dodgers did make it happen for Mookie Betts ….)
But there is ONE little “dilemma,” as Nick Deeds and Leo Morgenstern put it at MLB Trade Rumors: J.D. Martinez.
Dodgers, J.D. Martinez, and Shohei Ohtani
The Dodgers signed Martinez, a designated hitter, to a one-year, $10M deal last offseason and he went on to hit an excellent .271/.321/.572 (135 wRC+) in 2023. So now, the Dodgers have to decide if they want to extend him a qualifying offer. It doesn’t sound like much of a dilemma, until you consider the reality that, at $20.5M, he might just accept it!
Yes, Martinez had a great year. And yes there are multiple reports that multi-year offers could be on the table (which would get the Dodgers off the hook), but Martinez, entering his age 36-season, is no spring chicken. He also dealt with a nagging groin injury this year and might, you know, like playing for the Dodgers, himself. Fitting him into a lineup with Shohei Ohtani, who’s also only a DH next year, just doesn’t make a ton of sense.
So it seems there could be a chance that they don’t extend the qualifying offer, decoupling Martinez from draft pick compensation, try to get Ohtani, and pivot back to Martinez if they miss.
For what it’s worth, the Chicago Cubs are included in a group of teams at The Athletic that could theoretically make sense for Martinez, but only because they were a “fringe contender” who got below-average production from the DH spot. I tend to think the Cubs probably prefer to leverage flexibility out of the DH role, UNLESS they were able to get a transformative bat there (basically just Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto). And they certainly wouldn’t give up a draft pick to sign Martinez if the Dodgers to get give him a Qualifying Offer.
More Dodgers: Corbin Burnes, Cody Bellinger, Jason Heyward
Shohei Ohtani may be the Dodgers top priority, but he’s not going to pitch next season and the Dodgers need pitching. Clayton Kershaw is once again a free agent, though I wouldn’t bet on him leaving. But even if he returns, they’ll need more.
At the L.A. Times, Jack Harris seems to push back on the idea that the Dodgers will build their rotation through the top-end of free agency, but adds that they “are expected to pursue former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes,” as well as Tyler Glasnow. Each is entering his final year of team control with the Brewers and Rays, respectively.
Harris also reports mutual interest in a Jason Heyward reunion (good for him), but suggests that the Dodgers will NOT be heavily involved for Cody Bellinger or Matt Chapman.
To that end, I just had stories on Bellinger (whose timeline could make a return to the Cubs a little more likely) and Matt Chapman (who may not make as much sense for the Cubs as it once seemed), so check them out for more Cubs-specific stuff.
The Giants’ Need for Starting Pitching Just Went Up
A big spending offseason from the Giants is a pretty safe assumption, in my estimation. And the likelihood of those efforts being directed to the rotation have only increased.
Yesterday, starting pitcher Alex Cobb underwent left hip labrum surgery, which comes with a six-month timeframe before he can return to pitching. Even if the Giants do pick up his $10M option (instead of buying him out for $2M), they’ll want to bolster their starting pitching depth. Cobb, 36, has made 56 starts (301 IP) for the Giants over the last two seasons, with a 59.4% groundball rate and a 3.80 ERA. He’s been great for them, and at best, they’ll get a partial season out of him next year (at who knows what level of effectiveness given his age and the rehab).
Free Agent Pitcher Projections
So with that in mind, let me point you in the direction of Tim Britton’s excellent, excellent, excellent set of contract projections at The Athletic. Although there is some subjectivity, this is a project based mostly on historical data/math/inflation. In other words, Britton attempts to be a little more objective. He started with the pitchers (excluding Ohtani), but the rest is coming.
Here’s a little taste of some of the pitchers included:
Check out Britton’s article for projections on Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, and others.
