Rankings season is here! Today, the first TWO new top-10 Chicago Cubs prospect lists dropped in the offseason rankings period. It is among the best pictures we get on the system, because it incorporates not only a full season of added data on the prospects, but also a great deal more in-person scouting, conversations with insiders, etc., etc. I’m not saying in-season updates aren’t also very valuable, but the offseason rankings tend to have a more complete picture.
Today, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus each dropped their new top-10 Cubs list. The orders are slightly different among them, but there is obviously a great deal of overlap in the names. Each article has a great deal of individualized information, so you’re going to want to read.
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF
2. Matt Shaw, SS
3. Cade Horton, RHP
4. Owen Caissie, OF
5. Kevin Alcántara, OF
6. Moises Ballesteros, C
7. James Triantos, IF
8. Jordan Wicks, LHP
9. Jefferson Rojas, SS
10. Ben Brown, RHP
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF
2. Cade Horton, RHP
3. Matt Shaw, SS
4. Owen Caissie, OF
5. Moises Ballesteros, C
6. Jordan Wicks, LHP
7. Kevin Alcántara, OF
8. Ben Brown, RHP
9. Jefferson Rojas, SS
10. Jackson Ferris, LHP
Probably the biggest thing that is jumping out at you right now is the presence of 19-year-old catching prospect Moises Ballesteros HIGH on both lists. That’s exactly the kind of thing I’m talking about in these after-season updates – clearly, the word is out about not only what he did to climb all the way to Double-A this year, but also how well the bat projects in the future. On the year, split among Low-A, High-A, and Double-A, Ballesteros hit .285 .374 .449/131 wRC+, with a 12.8% BB rate, a 15.8% K rate, and a .164 ISO. The glove long-term is the question mark, but if the bat stays on this path, he’ll hit anywhere. Hence the rocket ship on his ranking.
I also really like to see how Jordan Wicks held steady there in a pretty lofty spot. It would be weird NOT to look at what he did in the big leagues and see that as a bit of a buoy to his expectations. Maybe he never becomes a front-of-the-rotation type, but mid-rotation is a real possibility, and that’s extremely valuable, especially in a prospect whose floor otherwise looks to be a capable back-of-the-rotation arm who is ready.
Other things I noticed: the love for Matt Shaw is very real, as I was kind of expecting after his pro debut. In a normal draft, he’s a top five-ish pick. Hey, and finally consensus top-10 status for Jefferson Rojas! He is legit.
Given how deep the Cubs’ system is, it’s actually almost surprising to see only 11 names total between the two lists, but the reality is, just because the Cubs’ system is extremely deep doesn’t mean there aren’t clear tiers. These are the best prospects in the system.
For me, personally, there is a clear top two (PCA and Horton), a next tier group after that and I could be persuaded on the order (Caissie, Shaw, Alcántara, Rojas), and then the next tier where, again, the order is up for discussion (Triantos, Wicks, Brown, Ballesteros, Ferris). From there, the group is still really, really good, just probably not in that top-11 (guys like Alexander Canario, Drew Gray, B.J. Murray Jr., Michael Arias, Matt Mervis, Haydn McGeary, so on and so forth).
Read the full takes over at BA and BP, and get/stay excited. The Cubs’ system is so legit.