NEWSLETTER
Our long nightmare is over. Well, I mean, I suppose we’re still waiting on certain OTHER signings, but at least the Chicago Cubs finally landed a quality, sure-fire reliever on a big league deal.
It seems Jed Hoyer’s patience really paid off, too, because the Cubs are getting a BARGAIN on former Astros reliever Hector Neris:
Honestly, that deal is such a bargain given the way the market had moved on this tier of relievers that I’m wondering whether Jed is just an absolute genius (or super lucky) for waiting things out, or if there is something to be worried about with Neris (beyond normal age/regression/etc. stuff?). I guess it’s probably the velocity decline? More on that in a moment.
Let’s chat quickly about the new reliever, though there will definitely be much more to unpack.
Hector Neris, 34, was a long-time Phillies reliever who was mostly very good, with an occasional blip of a season. He came to the Astros before 2022, and pitched quite well in late-inning work for the exceptional Astros bullpen. His career, via FanGraphs:
Neris was historically a mid-90s guy, as you can see, but that slipped to an average of just 93.1 mph with the fastball. He was still successful on the results side of the ledger because the quality of contact against him was crap (in a good way), though he also benefited from an almost-certainly-too-low BABIP of .219, and a definitely-too-high strand rate of 90.5%. You’re gonna want to project some real regression on those fronts.
That said, Neris was still striking guys out near 30% of the time, which makes up for a walk rate that has been around 10% in recent years. It’s interesting that the Astros had him go extremely four-seam heavy (you can see the huge drop in his groundball rate), and I wonder if the Cubs would want to tweak that for more ground balls, given their defense. And maybe more of the splitter (which he can help teach to the other guys):
On the balance, Neris has been a well-rounded, capable, durable, late-inning reliever for a very long time. Exactly the kind of veteran the Cubs were looking for, and to get him on a one-year deal with a team option (or a reasonable player option if it vests) is a coup. Again, more soon.
Also, Neris has a little extra to him:
