Nascar Picks, & Predictions: NOCO 400 Best Bets
Qualifying is in the books for Martinsville and boy were there some surprises. Ryan Preece took the pole, his first ever in the Cup Series. Despite their early season struggles, all four SHR cars find themselves inside the top 10. And it’s Daniel Suarez not Ross Chastain from Trackhouse starting on the front row. The odds have shifted quite a bit since practice and qualifying and I’ve finished shopping. Check out my NOCO 400 Best Bets below.
See the Opening Odds for the NOCO 400 HERE
NOCO 400 Picks
Qualifying was definitely a bit surprising to me with the Fords throwing down some fast laps. But although they flexed their short track single-lap speed, the manufactor hasn’t won here since Spring of 2019. Additionally, Martinsville is about long run speed and tire preservation so you can’t fall in love with any of these qualifying laps.
Also of note, the last time a driver starting on the front row won here was Spring of 2013. Sorry Ryan Preece and Daniel Suarez. And eight of the last ten winners started 3rd through 10th. Check out which drivers fall under this category and the entire NOCO 400 Starting Grid HERE.
Kevin Harvick +1000 (DraftKings) Bet 1u to win 10u
Harvick’s recent results here in Martinsville leave much to be desired. He has just one top 10 finish over the last six races here with four being 14th or lower. That said, we’re talking about one of the sports all-time greats. And someone who has decent career success on short tracks.
Kevin has the 4th best average finish on the shorties since the 2020 season. He’s been more competitive this season than we saw during most of last year. And he laid down the 2nd fastest 20, 25, and 30-lap averages during practice yesterday.
It’s easy to sleep on the veteran but if you saw with my pre-practice and qualifying bets, you’d know KV has been on my radar all week.
Check out my pre-qualifying bets HERE
Ross Chastain Top 10 +145 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 1.45u
Wow! Ross the boss looked lost during qualifying and will be starting 34th. So what! Single lap speed speed means nothing outside of qualifying or a potential overtime. Chastain looked fine during practice posting the 5th fastest single lap and the 13 quickest 10 and 15-lap averages.
This is a driver who placed top 5 in both Martinsville races last year *Hail Melon helped the Fall event. He’s no stranger to starting near the back (27th) only to finish high (5th) as he did during the Spring race here last year. And lastly, Chastain ran the entire Richmond race inside the top 5 to a 3rd place finish at our only other true short track race this year.
NOCO 400 Best Bet
Christopher Bell Top 10 -120 (Caesars) Bet 1u to win 1.67u
The no.20 has been on fire entering Sunday as well with 6th place or better finishes in six of the seasons eight races. This success, his win at Bristol Dirt last week and a victory here last Fall, had Bell as one of the early favorites at Martinsville.
Coming into the week, JGR as a whole was expected to crush considering their recent successes here. Surprisingly, only Martin Truex Jr. wound up qualifying inside the top 10 and it was the 23/XI team showing best. Even so, the JGR drivers with Bell in particular are still expected to show well during the race.
He won from the 20th position last season which is just two spots ahead of his starting spot today. We’re also not asking him to make his way all the way to the front. All we need is a 10th or better which is easily within reach. He’s been one of, if not the best driver so far in 2023. So there is no reason to think he can’t overcome a poor starting spot and help cash our NOCO 400 Best Bet.
Always remember that in addition to always trying to win, betting should be fun and done within your means. Good luck on all your wagers for this week’s race and Let’s cash some tickets!
Featured Image credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images
