Social Navigation

AdventHealth 400 Picks - Kyle Larson is a top 5 machine... When he finishes! Can he do it this week?

AdventHealth 400 Picks and Predictions

News, Sports Betting

To the land of great BBQ and the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs we go. Nascar is in Kansas City at Kansas Speedway for race number 12 on the season. The green flag is scheduled to drop this Sunday, May 7th at 3:00 PM EST for the scheduled 267 laps. Before the cars hit the track this week, let’s try and hit some value with some early AdventHealth 400 picks.



21+ and in participating states. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.$1,000

AdventHealth 400 Picks – Pre-Practice/Qualifying Bets

Kansas Speedway has been very friendly to Toyota in the past. Last year it was an all 23XI party as the no.45 car won both races with Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace behind the wheel. The manufacturer has won five of the last seven races in KC. And since 2012, has won at least one of the two events here in eight of the previous eleven seasons.

This is heavily reflected in the opening odds with four Toyota’s among the six drivers with odds shorter than 10-1. Among the favorites is Denny Hamlin who has 3 career victories here and last week’s race winner Martin Truex Jr., a 2-time victor in Kansas.

AdventHealth 400 Opening Odds

I wanted to play it safe this week after seeing my card at Dover go up in flames early. But that’s just not in my nature so of course a couple of Top 5s have found their way onto the docket already. See my early AdventHealth Picks below.

Denny Hamlin Top 5 +110 (BetMGM) Bet 2u to win 2.2u

Hamlin has been a magician in Kansas the past few seasons. Even while struggling to find speed in the nextgen car last year he finished 4th and 2nd. And he’s found a top 5 finish in three straight and in five of the last seven races here.

Denny has been fast this season and been running near the front on a weekly basis. He’s led multiple laps in eight of the eleven races so far and finished 6th or better four times. JGR knows what they’re doing at this track and I don’t expect that to change.

See my first bet for Kansas that has already seen it’s plummet HERE

Kyle Larson Top 5 -120 (BetMGM) Bet 2u to win 1.67u       

Kyle Larson is the race favorite once again this week and for very good reasons. He was the fastest car at Dover before being Ross Chastain’s latest victim there. And he’s been fantastic at Kansas over his career. He’s led 29 or more laps in five of his eight Cup Series races. Finished Top 4 in half of them. And has a win here back during his Championship run in 2021.

Larson’s average finish this year is an inflated 18.2 but that is very deceiving. He’s had the unfortunate luck of wrecking out of four different races and suffering issues in two others. During the five races he didn’t have issues his average finish is 4.4 and he has four top 5s. Kyle is Nascar’s premier driver and a threat to win at any track we go to. It’s a lot to ask considering his season so far, but if he runs clean, this is probably a lock.

Featured Image credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Author: Brian Twining

Just a regular guy who absolutely loves sports. I've been playing, watching, and recreationally betting on sports for over 30 years. My favorite sports to attack at the sportsbook are Football (NFL/NCAAF), College Basketball, and most recently - the NASCAR Cup Series. I'm not an "expert" and I don't have or use betting models, but I do put in the research and apply that to my wagers which are mostly backed by the trending data with of course a little, as Gibbs from the show NCIS would say "Gut Feeling" contributing to the side chosen. Sports betting should be fun and enjoyable so always play within your means and NEVER chase your losses. You can follow me on Twitter @Brian_Twining - Let's try and win some bets!