2023 RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview – Oakdale Golf & CC

With the U.S. Open fast approaching, the PGA Tour heads north of the border to the province of Ontario for the 111th edition of the RBC Canadian Open. Located near the center of the Greater Toronto area, Oakdale Golf & Country Club will host the tournament for the first time in its history and will represent the 37th different course to host this national event.

The tournament will be held on a composite routing from Oakdale’s 27-holes, 18 of which were designed by legendary Canadian golf architect Stanley Thompson in 1926 with Canadian Golf Hall of Fame member Robbie Robinson adding the other nine in 1957. The entire 27 holes were renovated in recent years by noted Canadian restoration expert Ian Andrew.

Oakdale is a classical, tree-lined, parkland course with undulating terrain, meandering fairways, thick bluegrass rough, and tiered greens. Black Creek runs through the over 200 acres of property on which Oakdale is built and affects four of the holes. It will be a unique setup as the front nine is expected to play significantly tougher than the back nine. Oakdale has been described as a slightly easier version of St. George’s Golf & Country Club, which was host to last year’s Canadian Open. I would expect a winning score in the 18- to 23-under range.

With sloped fairways on many holes and others that pinch in near the landing zones, combined with some of the longest rough of the year and numerous greens with false fronts, accuracy both off the tee and on approach will be crucial. From that perspective, Oakdale should somewhat prepare the 18-plus players who already have their ticket punched for the challenge ahead at the following week’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club.

The Field

Though not an elevated event, as is typical the week before a major, there is a solid, top-heavy field for this year’s Canadian Open with 10 of the top 30 and 24 of the top 100 in the OWGR in attendance including Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Sahith Theegala and Justin Rose.

McIlroy has dominated this event in recent years and looks to win for the third straight time. In 2019, he demolished the field beating both Shane Lowry and Webb Simpson by seven strokes. After being canceled in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Canadian Open returned last year at St. George’s Golf and Country Club where McIlroy triumphed again thanks to an 8-under final round.

Ironically, no Canadian golfer has won their national open since Pat Fletcher in 1954. Several notable Canadians in the field this week will try to change that fact including Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor, Adam Svensson, Mackenzie Hughes, and Taylor Pendrith. Their chances this year might be better than ever as three different Canadians enter the week having won a tournament already this season in Conners, Svensson, and Hughes.

Oakdale Golf & Country Club – History

When the 200-acre farm just north of Toronto known as “Oakdale” was purchased in 1926 by a group of businessmen, they hired rising architect Stanley Thompson to craft the initial nine holes with the second nine being added a few years later. “What Thompson found at the Oakdale farm was a relatively barren field full of large rolls in the land that dropped towards a meandering stream,” wrote Robert Thompson in The Golf Courses of Stanley Thompson. “The best holes utilize both elements to great effect.” The two nine-hole layouts that Thompson designed are called the “Thompson” and “Homenuik” nines (named for longtime pro and Canadian Golf Hall of Famer Wilf Homenuik).

In 1957, only a few years after Thompson’s untimely death at the age of 59 due to an aneurysm, Robbie Robinson, a protégé of the great Canadian designer, added nine holes to the property. Today this is known as the “Knudson” nine (named for eight-time PGA Tour winner George Knudson).

Starting in 2017, the property has been restored to Thompson’s vision under the direction of Canada’s most eminent restoration architect, Ian Andrew. Under his guidance, trees were removed to open up sightlines, bunkers were restored, and updates were made to the “Knudson” nine to keep those holes in line with Thompson’s design philosophy.

“I have seen few properties better adapted to the layout of an 18-hole golf course of championship caliber”, Thompson noted upon his work’s completion. Little did he know, it would take nearly a century for the course to host a prominent event. When it was announced that Oakdale was the choice for the 2023 (and 2026) Canadian Open, the selection was a surprise to many. One of the preeminent golf experts in Canada, Geoff Fienberg, who is a member at Oakdale, was shocked to learn of his home course being selected as the host of the national open. “I didn’t believe the rumors at all at first. I didn’t even think the property could handle the infrastructure the PGA Tour requires. But here we are. And I’m ecstatic about it.”

Course Features

Easy to walk and playable by all, Oakdale has always had a reputation as being one of the great city courses in Canada. And thanks to the restoration work by Ian Andrew, Oakdale is as vibrant and relevant as it’s ever been. The course is officially listed on the scorecard as a par-72 that measures 7,264 yards. In certain press releases, it is listed at 7,460 yards. Nonetheless, with the tee boxes changing each day, it checks in as an average-length PGA Tour course.

For the RBC Canadian Open, the course will use a composite routing of its three different sets of nine holes. The front nine will use four holes from the “Thompson” course and five holes from the “Homenuik”. The back nine will consist of the entire “Knudson” track .

Oakdale lies on a great piece of rolling terrain with elevation changes throughout the property. Whether it’s the holes that play uphill, the undulating fairways, or the crowned greens with false fronts, there aren’t many flat sections on this course. Hitting from uneven lies will be one of the challenges that golfers face this week. Players will get a taste of this on the very first hole as they will be hitting off an elevated tee down into a valley and then uphill on approach into an elevated green.

Oakdale features bentgrass fairways and greens with the putting surfaces having a touch (20%) of Poa annua mixed in. The rough is Kentucky Bluegrass, and by the start of the tournament will be allowed to grow to between 4-5″, making it one of the longest rough lengths in a non-major that players will see all year. As is the case with many classical tree-lined courses of average length, thick rough is one the few defenses Oakdale has to keep the tournament from becoming an all-out birdie-fest.

While the greens at Oakdale average around 6,000 square feet, the size of individual greens varies greatly throughout the course. On the front nine, greens on both the fifth and eighth holes are less than 3,500 square feet while the ones on the 13th and 18th holes are well over 7,500 square feet.

One of the things Stanley Thompson was known for was his artistic bunkering, and it is in full effect here at Oakdale. From the tee, on certain holes, numerous bunkers appear as if they are all in a row one after another near the green. But once down the fairway, it becomes clear that it was all a mirage thanks to the uphill nature of some of the holes. The 59 bunkers on the course are actually minimal in number compared to the average Tour course. The presence of water hazards is also minimal as Black Creek only comes into play on four holes (three off the tee and one on approach).

Hole Preview

While Oakdale is a par-72 course, it only has three par-3s along with three par-5s. The par-3s are standard in length (193, 208, 172) and are each quality birdie opportunities. All of the par-5s are reachable in two shots with the 590-yard 7th hole offering a downhill drive off the tee. With two additional par-4s compared to a traditional par-72 layout, par-4 scoring takes on added importance this week. Five of these holes being in the 350-400 yard range emphasizes the priority of accuracy over distance off the tee and allows for players to take less than driver in order to stay out of the rough.

By all accounts, which include the course superintendent, the head PGA professional, and course renovator Ian Andrew, the front nine holes will present a real challenge with even-par being discussed as a quality score. Said Andrew, “I believe the players will just try to hang on for the front nine where the greens are smaller and the fairways are tighter and then go low on the back which is shorter with bigger greens.” The front nine plays on more undulating and interesting terrain compared to the back nine.

Holes #3-7 represent the meat of the course. These five holes include four lengthy par-4s along with the longest par-5 on the course and average 497 yards in length. Though most players will lay up off the tee, the 354-yard par-4 8th hole is the closest players will get to a driveable hole where the green is potentially reachable with a power fade off the tee. However, with the green being so small and undulating, Fienberg says players will be smart to lay up just short of the green and pitch the ball close for an easy birdie chance.

For the back nine, golfers will play the “Knudson” nine in order with no composite routing necessary. It is 400 yards shorter than the front nine, and much easier with scores as low as 29 in play throughout the week. There are realistically six possible “driver/3-wood followed by a wedge” opportunities.

The closing 18th hole will be a very interesting risk-reward hole to watch this week. At 496 yards, this short par-5 was once listed as a par-4. With a bunker on the left, Black Creek bisects the fairway forcing players to either lay up with a long iron (240-yard approach) or take the chance of hitting it longer up into “Knudsen’s Valley.” The green is the most contoured on the property and being in the wrong quadrant will present a tough two-putt. Anything from eagle to double bogey is in play on this hole. In last year’s Monday Qualifier held here for the Canadian Open at St. George’s, it played as the toughest hole on the course with a 5.00 average.

Strokes Gained Analysis

Off the Tee

There will definitely be a premium on hitting the fairway this week. Whether it’s the tree-lined sloping fairways or the thick penal rough, golfers who are in the best position off the tee to attack some potentially tricky pin placements on the greens will have the best chance for success. Not only do numerous fairways pinch tighter near the landing zones, the slopes often tilt toward the rough or fairway bunkers making it difficult to control accuracy.

One area the players won’t have to worry about as much is shaping their drives. With only two slight doglegs, most holes are straight with everything right in front of them. Golfers do have options off the tee. Players can club down on almost any hole and still reach most greens with longer irons. They can also choose to blast away with driver and attempt the “bomb and gauge” method by leaving themselves wedges into the greens. This is especially true on the back nine where the fairway landing zones are a bit wider. Similar to the last few events at Oak Hill and Muirfield Village, Good Drive % on other courses with long rough should be a quality metric to analyze this week.

Approach

With the greens at Oakdale having multiple difficult options for pin placements thanks to the numerous crowns and tiers on many of the putting surfaces, proximity to the hole and precision on approach will be crucial as always. Other greens slope sharply from back to front making it key for players to hit their approach shots beyond the false fronts to the proper quadrant.

Whether using driver or clubbing down off the tee, approach play from inside 150 yards, and especially from the 75-125 yard range will be pivotal for generating the most scoreable birdie opportunities. Players should have ample opportunities, especially on the back nine, to attack greens with a wedge in their hands.

Around the Green and Putting

Players that miss the green will mostly have to deal with rough areas along with the numerous bunkers that surround each putting surface. Other than the aprons and false fronts on certain holes, there are not many “short-grass” chipping opportunities.

Greens are expected to run around a 12 on the stimpmeter with the potential for higher speeds on the weekend. Greens are a mixture of 80% bentgrass and 20% Poa annua. These are the same greens at Oakdale that will have been used over the past century. Many are full of character, and their sloping will test the patience and putting skills of golfers, especially with some of the unique pin placements that will be utilized.

Most Important Stats For Success at Oakdale Golf & CC

*In order of importance

  • SG: APP
  • Fairways Gained
  • Good Drive % (Rough)
  • SG: Par 4
  • Proximity 100-175 yds
  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • SG: Total (Easy Scoring Courses)
  • SG: ARG
  • 3-Putt Avoidance
  • Weather Forecast – Toronto, Ontario

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    Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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