NEWSLETTER
This Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles will face the Kansas City Chiefs at Super Bowl 57 in Phoenix, Arizona. Get in on the sports betting action and utilize our Super Bowl 57 prediction and preview for the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles game.
Super Bowl 57 Kansas City Chiefs vs Eagles Prediction
The Super Bowl is finally here! After a wild 2022 season, we are left with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Get our full free Super Bowl 57 In-Depth Breakdown over on 4for4.
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Super Bowl Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Sunday, February 12th, 2023
- Time: 6:30 PM EST
- Spread: Eagles -1.5 (FanDuel)
- Total: 50.5 (FanDuel)
When the Eagles have the ball
This Super Bowl reminds me a lot of the Panthers and Broncos Super Bowl from 2015, but in a different way than you would expect. In 2015, the Panthers’ offense was rolling. They ranked in the top three in basically every metric and Cam Newton was in MVP form. It seemed like almost nothing could stop them with how dominant they were on offense.
The biggest issue was that they hadn’t played any decent defenses. When they matched up against Denver’s elite defense, they were stifled. They couldn’t run or pass and Newton was under constant pressure. I don’t think that exact scenario is applicable here, but the overarching point is that strength of the schedule matters. It matters specifically because the Eagles are the top-ranked pass defense in terms of efficiency (Football Outsiders’ DVOA), yet rank 31st in terms of strength of schedule.
When analyzing a matchup it’s really important to understand the context of every ranking and metric. The Eagles ranking first in pass defense would tell most people they are elite. When you dive in deeper, the numbers tell a different story. During the regular season, the Eagles played against just five teams ranked in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency.
In those games they allowed:
- 30.2 points per game
- 2.9 points per drive
- 56.7% success rate
- 9.7% explosive pass rate
- 0.015 EPA/Play
To summarize, the Eagles were very good against bad opponents but below average against any offense ranked in the top 16 of efficiency. What makes this even more interesting is that the sample of top-half offenses really aren’t teams you would consider to be elite.
Their toughest matchup on paper (5th in offensive DVOA) came in Week 1 against Detroit. The Eagles allowed 35 points and were shredded on the ground.
It’s notable that the Lions had offensive success despite not really finding their offensive footing until Week 9. Detroit finished fifth in overall offensive DVOA on the season but was not playing anywhere near that well early on.
The same rings true for their next “tough” matchup against Jacksonville in Week 4. Despite being months away from their offensive peak, the Jags still put up 21 points.
Things got really interesting against the Cowboys in Week 16 and the Packers in Week 12. The Eagles’ defense was largely healthy outside of when safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson missed the game against Dallas.
Dak Prescott scorched the Eagles for 347 yards on 35 pass attempts, completing 27 of them for three touchdowns. This amounts to a 77% completion rate and 9.9 yards per attempt for a total of 40 points for the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys are the most similar to the Chiefs in terms of overall explosiveness but are still far behind them in overall efficiency.
The Packers put up 20 points in the first half against the Eagles before Aaron Rodgers got hurt in the third quarter. Even Jordan Love was able to come in and add a touchdown late. The Packers finished with 33 total points.
The last team in the sample of top-half offenses is the Giants—one of the biggest overperformers we have seen in recent memory. Their roster was deprived of talent but still found a way to be relatively efficient offensively.
That’s it.
Those are the best offenses the Eagles have played against this season. Nine of their 19 games came against bottom-10 offenses or backup quarterbacks.
If you enjoyed the first part of our in-depth Super Bowl breakdown, read our full free Super Bowl 57 In-Depth Breakdown.
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