NEWSLETTER
The Florida swing continues at Bay Hill for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill offers a stern test of golf, and historically, the winner comes from near the top of the betting board. It is worth noting that a long shot got home here last year, with Kurt Kitayama holding off Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, and the rest of the contenders to win at 200/1.Â
The top of the betting board has been kept out of the winner’s circle this season, and that gets a bit tougher this week with the reduced field size. This year’s signature status whittles the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational field down to just 69 golfers, with the Friday cut set at the low 50 and ties, or as we saw at Riviera, anyone within ten shots of the lead.
Despite being a healthy 7,454 yards from the tips, Bay Hill plays even longer than the scorecard would indicate. Despite that, distance advantages off the tee are mitigated because of the multitude of forced layups and doglegs throughout. Forced layups off the tee create a ton of long approach shots, and this week’s field will face a higher rate of 200+ yard approach shots than any other week this season.
As is typical of most Florida courses, Arnold Palmer Invitational’s Bay Hill has 84 bunkers and nine holes with water danger. The water hazards have contributed to the course having the highest percentage of penalty strokes on Tour over the past three years. So much of succeeding at Bay Hill comes down to leaving the ball in the correct spot, playing the proper angles, and staying patient. This is why course history matters so much here. The best way to know where to keep the ball in the fairway and on the greens is to have played in these conditions at Bay Hill previously.
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So far, 2024 has been the year of the longshot winner on the PGA Tour. We had another triple-digit winner last week, Austin Eckroat, who won at PGA National. We’ll look to uncover a couple of options down the board at this week’s 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. We’ll cover their finishing position price as well. “Sleepers and Longshots” are tougher to come by in a limited-field event like we have here, with everyone’s odds coming in a bit shorter due to the 69-man field.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleeper and Longshots
Keegan Bradley 60/1 (FanDuel)
I backed him to win on Monday morning at 90/1, a criminal price in this 69-man field, but I still like him at this current price.
Keegan Bradley has made the cut here in 11 straight starts, finishing T11 or better in three straight years. He loves Florida golf and ranks second in the field in “SG: Florida” over the past 50 rounds he has played. His high ball flight helps him hold this firm and fast Bermuda greens, especially from 200+ yards out, where he ranks seventh in fairway proximity and fourth in proximity from the rough.
He’s gained strokes on approach in 12 consecutive measured events, and he’s gained strokes putting in each of his past three starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. You can also back him at +170 (FanDuel) to finish inside the top 20 again.
Harris English 60/1 (FanDuel)
It’s been a quiet but excellent start to 2024 for Harris English. He finished seventh last time out at The Genesis, his fourth T17 or better finish in six starts this season. His game is well-suited for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with plus distance and accuracy off the tee, along with a strong short game to navigate these firm and fast greens. He’s made the cut in five straight appearances, including top-10 finishes in 2020 (T9) and last season (T2). A strong show at this year’s 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational won’t come as a surprise, and he’s available on FanDuel at +160 to finish inside the top 20.
