NEWSLETTER
With Josh Donaldson signed by the Twins – a non-Kris-Bryant-pursuer – it was inevitable that a load of Bryant-related trade stuff was gonna roll out, and Michael got into most of it earlier today.
One of the things Michael mentioned, and we’re going to see more of it, is the pushback from anonymous teams about the many problems with Bryant’s trade value, as bogus as they may be. We’ve dug into this issue before, and it all still applies. Of course teams are going to dump on Bryant’s trade value right now. It just doesn’t mean much of anything; you’ve gotta do your own evaluation of what he’s worth, and what the Cubs would need to get in order to deal him.
Specifically, one area that popped up very quickly out of Atlanta last night and this morning is the purported problems with Bryant’s defense at third base, and I wanted take a moment to squash that one quickly before it accelerates.
In evaluating the Braves’ post-Donaldson options, Jeff Schultz writes this about Bryant: “Anthopoulos might not be enthusiastic about pursuing the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado on the trade market. Bryant is shaky defensively and has a pending service-time grievance that could make him a free agent in one year instead of two (obviously impacting trade assets).”
And Schultz’s colleague David O’Brien offered this today:
#Braves have prospects to trade for Bryant or Arenado, but haven't been gung-ho on either — Arenado because of multi-prospect outlay, long-term financial commitmant & contract opt-out after '21. Bryant 3B defense not great at this point, plus don't know yet if 1 or 2 yrs control
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) January 15, 2020
Saying Bryant is “not great” at third base is not unfair, though I think “shaky” probably goes a bit far. Regardless of the label you put on it, the real problem is in pointing to Bryant’s defense as though it’s a reason not to acquire him. That’s just BS.
When you contrast Bryant with Arenado, sure, he falls far short – but that’s because Arenado is among the most elite defenders in baseball at any position. That does not mean Bryant’s defense is bad, and thus makes you question whether you want him for the next two years. By the eye test, Bryant still looks plenty passable at third base, and can also play well enough in a corner outfield spot (particularly left field). His versatility in that regard – particularly the ability to shuttle back and forth between positions through a season – is a value add on defense.
Yes, *some* of Bryant’s advanced defensive metrics have absolutely taken a hit at third base the last few years – particularly DRS – going from decently above-average in his first two seasons, and sliding down to below-average the last two years. But Bryant’s UZR/150 bounced back in a pretty significant way in 2019, and he actually rated slightly above-average in Statcast’s new OAA metric.
The whole of the defensive metrics suggest Bryant is probably, at worst, slightly below average right now at third base. Again, he ain’t Arenado. Almost nobody is. But he’s fine at third. It’s not an issue.
Also, I think you have to keep things in perspective a bit: despite the “down” numbers on defense, Bryant still posted a 4.8 WAR, making him the 11th most valuable player in the NL in 2019, tied with huge bats like Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. The ability to play decent, even if not great, defense at third base makes you a whole lot more valuable than if you’re just a bat.
Is defense a big selling point, in a Bryant trade? No. Is it a huge ding to his trade value? Is it a reason not to pursue him? Come on. That dog don’t hunt.
