NEWSLETTER
Like I said last night, because the Cubs and Marcus Stroman decided to go the very unorthodox route of putting him back in the rotation before he was stretched out – despite him looking good in a needy bullpen and despite Javy Assad being fine as a starter – the onus was on them to show why it was a good decision.
After another very short start last night that featured rockets aplenty, I think we can say it was a mistake.
We can’t know for sure how things would’ve been different if Stroman had stayed in the bullpen and Assad had stayed in the rotation, given that the Cubs did win Stroman’s first start on Saturday. But what about the bullpen usage? What if he’d been available on Tuesday or Wednesday when the bullpen blew leads? It looked like an odd call at the time, and now it just looks like the wrong one.
As for Stroman, it was already reportedly “highly likely” that he was going to stay with the Cubs and not opt out of his deal for 2024, and I think that’s now a lock. The only way you could have seen that presumption changing, given the injuries and midseason ineffectiveness, was if he’d come back, looked outstanding for a couple weeks, and maybe even got in a great postseason appearance. That hasn’t/won’t happen now, so I think he takes his $21 million, one-year deal for 2024 with the Cubs, and looks to bounce back.
Stroman isn’t commenting on the issue right now, as you would expect.
“I haven’t processed that yet to be honest with you,” Stroman told the Tribune. “There’s so much that happened. So we’ll see how it plays out. Definitely not looking too far into the future just yet.”
For their part, while I’m sure the Cubs always want as much flexibility as possible, it’s hard to argue with a one-year deal for a guy who has historically been very good when healthy. Even this year, it wasn’t until the blister issue in London – then the hip inflammation, then the rib cage injury – that Stroman fell off. When fully healthy, he was among the best starters in baseball.
… not that you can COMPLETELY hand-wave away the injuries and underperformance, though, because they do create added risk of disappointment in 2024 for a guy turning 33 in May. But on the balance, with an offseason to rest up, I think it’s more likely than not that Stroman, in 2024, pitches like a guy you’d want in almost any rotation.
There are, nevertheless, financial considerations.
For example, you do wonder if Stroman returning makes it slightly less likely that the Cubs pick up Kyle Hendricks’ $16 million option for 2024 ($1.5 million buyout). That’d be a lot of money devoted to the middle of the rotation, between Stroman, Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon. Justin Steele is going to be due a healthy raise in arbitration, too.
Could Stroman’s return, coupled with Hendricks, take the Cubs out of a VERY loaded starting pitching market this offseason? Surely they wouldn’t sit out a young stud like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though, right? Or even a separate international star like Shota Imanaga? Those are five+ year guys, and you’d hate to see the Cubs sit them out because of one year of crowding.
If Stroman does return, if the Cubs do opt to keep Hendricks, and if the Cubs don’t add another sure-fire starter, they’d be looking at a repeat of this year’s front four – Justin Steele, Stroman, Hendricks, Taillon – and then a load of guys competing for the fifth spot (Drew Smyly, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton). Great to have a lot of options, and we certainly saw how that played out this year. But I guess I still just don’t want to see the Cubs sitting out a crowded free agent starting pitching market where they might be able to be choosey about who they bring in.
But hey, like I said before, they’d be in a particularly good spot to bring in a certain guy who can’t pitch in 2024, but can hit in 2024, and then can pitch again in 2025.
Ultimately, I think it remains by far more likely that Stroman opts into his deal with the Cubs for 2024, and everyone thinks about it like a one-year pillow contract. My guess is the Cubs would probably be OK with a decision either way, and that’s pretty much where I land, too. Stroman at one-year and $21 million is fine. Stroman wanting to test free agency again is also fine. Honestly I just don’t have a strong opinion on the matter.
I reserve that feeling for what a mistake it was to bring Stroman back into the rotation at this late hour in 2023 …
