NEWSLETTER
Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season – and those elevated expectations – begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I’m here to catch you up on everything you need to know before Game #1.
There’s a New Manager in Town!
It feels like forever ago, but the Cubs offseason started off with a loud (and entirely unexpected) BANG. Brewers manager Craig Counsell became a free agent, and instead of following David Stearns to New York to coach the Mets like most had guessed, Counsell found his way to the North Side after covertly meeting with Jed Hoyer and only a small circle of Cubs personnel. It was a shocking development and a total coup for the Cubs, as Counsell is generally considered to be one of the best managers in baseball. Yes, that means the Cubs moved on from David Ross before his contract was complete. It genuinely caught a lot of us by surprise.
Of course, the Cubs are paying handsomely for the privilege — they made Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history (5 years, $40M).
Counsell is seen as a significant upgrade over David Ross — we’ve watched for years as the Brewers outperformed their projections and expected performance — with a particular strength in managing pitching staffs. He’ll also have a larger share of voice *within* the front office than almost any manager in baseball, meaning he’ll have a true say in the future of the organization. That’s another reason this was such a monumental decision. With Hoyer up top, Carter Hawkins (Guardians) at GM, and now Craig Counsell (Brewers) in the manager/front-office hybrid role, the Cubs core brain trust today looks significantly different than it did just a couple years ago.
As you can imagine (and enjoy), Brewers fans did NOT take the news well.
Cubs Offseason Additions
The Cubs didn’t have a particularly busy offseason in terms of free agent signings (at least not relative to our expectations after signing Counsell…), but they did get the job done, checking three key boxes in free agency and one other via trade.
Notable Cubs Free Agent Signings
- Cody Bellinger: 3-years, $80M (Two opt-outs)
- Shota Imanaga: 4-years, $53M (can balloon to 5/$80M)
- Hector Neris: 1-year, $9M ($9M option for 2025)
You can click on their names for details on each signing.
It took all winter (and a little bit of Spring) to actually get it done, but Cody Bellinger eventually found his way back to the Cubs on a three-year, $80M deal with opt outs after years one and two. Bellinger remade himself last year – winning 2023 NL Comeback Player of the Year in the process – but it didn’t result in the sort of big-money, long-term deal he was seeking. The short explanation? The industry didn’t believe his excellent results matched his admittedly weak batted ball metrics. He’ll set out to prove them wrong this season and re-enter the free agent market again next winter.
But while Bellinger may be disappointed by the offers he received this offseason, this worked out about as perfectly as possible for the Cubs, who get Bellinger back with hardly any long-term financial risk. Bellinger will start in center field until the Cubs top prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong, is ready to take over. At that point, Bellinger can play first base.
Shota Imanaga was the second biggest free agent signing of the Cubs offseason, and we basically got more excited about his potential with every Cactus League inning. The relatively short, 30-year-old left-hander is making his Major League debut this season after previously pitching in Japan, where he was a two-time All-Star, a Central League strikeout champ, and the owner of a no-hitter back in 2022. Imanaga’s calling card is his unique fastball (you gotta see the movement to believe it), which he’s been working to elevate all spring. And it’s hard to say it isn’t working — Imanaga struck out a ridiculous 25 batters in 12.2 Cactus League innings. LOL. Yes, please.
And lastly, you have Hector Neris, the first sure-fire free-agent reliever the Cubs have signed in quite a while. Neris, 34, lost some velo on his fastball last season, but was still as effective as anyone out there (1.71 ERA). He’ll be the primary set-up man to Adbert Alzolay this season. Neris’ one-year, $9M team option for 2025 can turn into a player option if Neris reaches 60 games this year. And if he hits all his incentives, the deal can go as high as two-years, $23.25M. Suffice it to say, the Cubs would be THRILLED if he pitched often enough and well enough to earn his full amount.
Other Notable Offseason Additions:
- Michael Busch (Trade)
- Yency Almonte (Trade)
- Garrett Cooper (Minor league FA)
You can read much more about Garrett Cooper (who made the team after a ST battle) and Yency Almonte by clicking on those links, but Michael Busch is the headliner. The Cubs knew they needed at least one more bat this offseason (in addition to Bellinger), preferably someone that could play first or third base (or DH). Free agent 1B Rhys Hoskins was attached to the Cubs all winter long, but he wound up signing with the Brewers, while the Cubs made an unexpected and splashy trade with the Dodgers.
But it was costly. For Busch (and Almonte), the Cubs sent well-liked outfield prospect Zyhir Hope and their 2022 second-round pick Jackson Ferris. The center piece, Ferris, may have been taken in the second-round back in 2022, but he was widely considered to be a first-round talent and was rising up the rankings since being selected. It was a good use of resources, but it was pricey. Thus, Busch is a name you’re going to hear a lot about this year.
And his story is odd. You might be wondering how Busch, already 26-years-old, is still a top-50 (or so) prospect in all of baseball, or why the Dodgers made him available in the first place. But it’s pretty much because the Dodgers have Freddie Freeman (1B) and Shohei Ohtani (DH) blocking him. That’s a tough duo to leapfrog. Impossible, really. So the Cubs were opportunistic and rolled the dice on Busch providing the extra left-handed thump this lineup is otherwise lacking. He’s going to be the starting first baseman from Day 1, and the Cubs are REALLY counting on his bat being a positive.
Notable Cubs Exits
The two most notable exits this offseason were Marcus Stroman, who opted out of his contract with the Cubs and signed with the Yankees, and Jeimer Candelario, who became a free agent and signed with the Reds.
Stroman, you’ll recall, was outstanding in the first half of the season, posting a 2.28 ERA over his first 16 starts. But injuries and ineffectiveness absolutely crippled him down the stretch. After June 25, Stroman made just 9 starts totaling 38.0 IP, while allowing an unthinkable 42 runs to score (35 earned). That’s an 8.29 ERA.
Candelario had a similar trajectory after being traded to the Cubs at the deadline. He started off hot, but then injuries and ineffectiveness kept him from providing much value. Long story short, I’m not really sweating either exit.
There were also a handful of relievers in and out throughout the year, but that’s always true.
The Third Base Story
Probably the biggest storyline for the 2024 Cubs going into the season starts at third base. In short, Christopher Morel has been handed the keys to the position on the hope that he can get his glove (or really, his throwing accuracy) up to at least just slightly below average….yes, it’s arguably worse than that right now. Because if he can become even a slightly-below-average third baseman defensively overall, his bat will carry him MUCH further than that in terms of overall value.
If it doesn’t work out, the Cubs may be forced to have more starts available for Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, or Miles Mastrobuoni, while pushing Morel back to DH. And if that happens, the starting spots will start to get crowded once PCA comes up and pushes Bellinger to first.
Cubs Position Players
DH – Mike Tauchman
C – Yan Gomes
1B – Michael Busch
2B – Nico Hoerner
3B – Christopher Morel
SS – Dansby Swanson
LF – Ian Happ
CF – Cody Bellinger
RF – Seiya Suzuki
Bench: Miguel Amaya, Garrett Cooper, Miles Mastrobuoni, Nick Madrigal
IL: Patrick Wisdom
I’m not going to run through the entire group there, but we can hit some big points by starting from the top. To start the year, I suspect we’ll see Mike Tauchman at designated hitter more than any other player. The position will be used for rest and rotation, yes, but on a normal day against a normal righty, I suspect Tauchman is the guy. Eventually, later in the year, that spot could be roped off for Michael Busch (pushed off first by Bellinger, who was pushed off center by PCA), but we’re a ways away from that.
Behind the plate, I think we’ll see a pretty even timeshare between Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya, with Gomes as the nominal “starter.”
At first, Busch is the man, and will be almost everyday. HOWEVER, I do think we’ll see Garrett Cooper in there against lefties, at least until (1) Busch proves himself against lefties or (2) Patrick Wisdom returns from the IL and take on that role, himself.
We already talked about 3B and the rest of the group is the same starters as last year. Not much new here!
2024 Cubs Starting Rotation
- Justin Steele, LHP
- Kyle Hendricks, RHP
- Shota Imanaga, LHP
- Jordan Wicks, LHP
- Javier Assad, RHP
Depth: Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown? Cade Horton?
IL: Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon will eventually find his way back into the Cubs rotation (and don’t sleep on how solid/acceptable he was last year after his disastrous first-half). But for now, he’s out and being back-filled by Javier Assad. That leaves Drew Smyly (bullpen) and Hayden Wesneski (Iowa) waiting in the wings as the primary swing-men/fill-in starters, which is perfectly fine. Eventually, we may see one or two of the top pitching prospects, but hold that thought for now.
As for the rotation, it’s fine. Maybe a little too left-handed a little too soft-tossing, but this is not a group that will sink you. Justin Steele is a bona fida stud, and Hendricks, Imanaga, Wicks, and Assad are going to out-think and out-pitch most lineups. That’s just their style. There will be plenty of balls in play this year, but outside of third base, the Cubs defense is pretty darn strong, especially up the middle. And it’ll only get better (at two positions) once PCA arrives and Bellinger moves to first.
I think “stability” is the name of the game for this rotation. It’s a solid group, with moderate upside, a steady foundation, and plenty of solid depth.
2024 Cubs Bullpen
Adbert Alzolay emerged as the Cubs closer last season out of necessity, but he really ran with it. This year, he’ll have all the same bones to work with plus the experience he gained last season. He’ll also have a much more dependable set-up man in Hector Neris, and two really high-quality, high-leverage guys in Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. They’re both righties, but Leiter Jr. is particularly effective against lefties, so that gives the Cubs a perfect 7th inning option no matter what lineup they face.
Drew Smyly’s success out of the pen last year was too much for Craig Counsell to pass up, so he’s back in the bullpen. Luke Little will bring some heat from the left side, Jose Cuas brings a funky look for righties, and Almonte is a bit of a TBD for me. I just don’t have a great read on him yet. All in all, it’s not a terrible group. It’s also much more established than it was last year, and might get improved internally when Jameson Taillon heals up and pushes Javier Assad back into the ‘pen (or when Ben Brown, Daniel Palencia, or other young arms show up).
Top Cubs Prospects We Might See Soon
Jordan Wicks and Michael Busch still qualify as prospects, but both are Day 1 starters for the 2024 Chicago Cubs, so no news there. Luke Little is also a top-20 Cubs prospect who’s made the team out of camp. Beyond that trio, though, there are others:
Canario has already been up with the big league team, but he didn’t break camp on the active roster. I was rooting for him to make it, as I think he’ll be a great right-handed bat that can play all three outfield spots or DH as needed, but he’s still young, working on stuff, and not far removed from multiple injuries/surgery. Given the composition of the roster, a starter’s share of Triple-A at-bats for Canario is a perfectly fine outcome. Same goes for Matt Mervis, who’s in no-man’s land now that Michael Busch (and Cody Bellinger) are on the Cubs. His future in this org is murky, at best.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the Cubs top prospects and arguably already one of the best defensive center fielders on the planet. But his debut last year (which was spread out, short, and in a divisional race) didn’t go too well. So he’ll start the year out at Iowa, but if he’s producing offensively after about 100 PAs, you can expect him to be up and patrolling center field shortly thereafter, pushing Bellinger to first base. It’s going to be a big deal.
Ben Brown, 24, is closer to debuting than Cade Horton, 22, but the former might come up in relief (before switching to starting long-term). Horton, by contrast … I just doubt the Cubs are going to play that game with him. In other words, when it’s his time, I think he’ll start right. But that’s the thing, it’ll might take some time. I think we’ll see Horton before the end of the year, but he only just reached Double-A last season. So he still has something left to prove. That said, he’s one of the most exciting Cubs pitching prospects in 20 years.
There are also a couple of prospects that are not necessarily LIKELY to debut this season, but would be VERY fun if they do: Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, Moises Ballesteros, etc. We saw a lot of these guys this Spring, and most will find homes in Double/Triple-A for most of the year. When you’re this good and this close to the big leagues, anything can happen. But I wouldn’t count on seeing them this season.
Cubs Expectations
I just recently wrote about 1,200 words on my increased expectations for the 2024 Chicago Cubs, so I won’t re-hash that right here. Suffice it to say, even with middling projections, this is absolutely a playoffs-or-bust type season. The Cubs may not be the class of the National League (Dodgers, Braves). But they play in an extremely weak division and simply should not be let off the hook for anything less than a playoff berth.
Cool Cubs Opponents/Events
I also did a deep dive into the Cubs schedule, month-by-month, earlier in March, so check that piece out for an overall analysis of the Cubs plans. In the meantime, here are some of the key/fun dates on the calendar:
New MLB Rules
In case you missed it, there are a lot of new rules in MLB last season, including shift limits, bigger bases, pickoff limits, and the pitch clock. Among other outcomes, those rule changes led to significantly shorter games and many MANY more stolen bases.
Among the new rule changes:
