NEWSLETTER
It’s raining, it’s pouring, holy cow it’s actually snowing! Nascar is at rainy and SNOWY Auto Club Speedway for the final race on it’s current 2-mile configuration. We’re scheduled to go green at 3:30 PM et for 200 laps of high-speed and high-stress racing from Fontana, California. Below are my Pala Casino 400 Picks and Best Bets.
Defending and 2-time Auto Club winner Kyle Larson has held steady as the favorite. His odds are between +600 and +650 to become the fifth driver ever with 3 or more wins at Auto Club Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott has seen a ton of action and his odds have fallen to as low as +700. In total, there are five drivers with outright odds of +1000 or shorter.
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Pala Casino 400 from Auto Club Speedway Picks & Best Bet
It has been raining here in Southern California nonstop for almost a week. And Let me tell you, as a SoCal resident for over 30 years, we’re not prepared nor designed to handle this. All practice sessions and qualifying for both series’ were cancelled. The Xfinity race was postponed to AFTER the Cup Series race. And temperatures won’t get any higher than the mid-to-high 40’s.
With no practice or qualifying, the starting grid was set using a calculation most definitely designed by astrophysicists (just kidding, kind of).
All we have to go on is last year’s race and past results on similar tracks. Regardless, it’s pedal to the metal towards the sportsbook. Here are my Pala Casino 400 picks and best bets.
Pala Casino 400 Outrights
Unlike last week at Daytona, there are certain drivers who excel and others who don’t on tracks like Auto Club. Below are the guys I’ve pegged as having at least a chance to grab the checkered flag in Fontana.
Kyle Larson +650 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 6.5u
I’m not a fan of betting race favorites. But not having any exposure to Larson at his defacto home track would be a mistake. Larson has lived up to his nickname “Young Money” at Auto Club and all similar tracks.
As previously mentioned, he won last year and is one of only two active drivers with multiple wins in Fontana. He’s finished 1st or 2nd in 50% of his Cup races here.
Kyle has top 5’s in five of his last seven races at Homestead-Miami. Top 3’s in five of the last eight Darlington events. And finished runner-up in the last two Chicagoland races.
His 2022 was considered disappointing although he won 3 races. Had the 2nd most top 5 finishes with 13. And led the 6th most laps. Any signs of a return to 2021 form sends his weekly odds plummeting so jump on the good numbers now.
Joey Logano +1200 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 12u
Logano is one of the most accomplished drivers in the Cup Series. He’s a two time series champion. Has 31 career victories. He is simply one of the most well rounded racers in the sport.
Amazingly though, Joey has never won here at Auto Club despite an impressive track record here and at similar tracks. His worst finish over the last seven races here is 12th; that’s his only finish lower than 7th. And he has top 5 runs in five of the last six events here.
Someone like Logano is bound to find victory lane with a history like that. Why not make it during the last race on the current configuration and the Pala Casino 400?!
Other Outrights
Ryan Blaney +1000 (DraftKings) Bet 1u to win 10u
William Byron +1500 (FanDuel) Bet .75u to win 10.5u
Chase Briscoe +4000 (DraftKings) Bet .25u to win 10u
Austin Cindric +7500 (DraftKings) Bet .15u to win 12u
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Auto Club Speedway Placements
The placement market is pretty volatile right now but I still found a couple I really like.
Austin Cindric Top 10 +430 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 4.3u
As I stated, Penske was great here last year and that included Cindric. He qualified on pole, was one of the 10 fastest cars all day, and finished the first two stages inside the top 10. He has two very successful drivers here in his garage and should be better than his rookie year. This number should be no greater than +300.
Joey Logano Top 5 +180 (DraftKings) Bet 3u to win 5.4u
If I like him to win, why not add a Top 5 for some safety. I also broke this down earlier in the week,
Check it out HERE!
Other Placements
Ryan Blaney Top 5 +150 (DraftKings) Bet 1.5u to win 3u
Chase Briscoe Top 10 +200 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 2u
Race Props
Winner of Stage 1 Wins Race – Yes +650 (Caesars) Bet .5u to win 3.25u
Why do I like this prop? See why Right Here!
Pala Casino 400 Best Bet
Austin Dillon Top 10 +230 (FanDuel) Bet 3u to win 6.9u
This number is nuts! Dillon has been amazingly consistent at Auto Club Speedway and similar tracks.
His Xfinity career included a win and Top 5 finishes in 4 of 5 races here at Auto Club. He notched Top 5’s in 3 of his 4 races at Homestead-Miami. Had Top 10 runs in 2 of 4 Darlington events, and an average finish of 4th at the now defunct Chicagoland Speedway.
In Nascar’s top level, Dillon’s top tracks in average finish are Miami, Darlington, and here at Auto Club. No matter how he’s running during the race, he just has a knack for cracking the top 10. He’s done it in 9 of the last 13 races on high-wear intermediate tracks and finished 2nd here last year.
Lastly, the presence of Kyle Busch (4x winner here) should help Dillon improve everywhere in 2023. Especially a track where KB has dominated previously, and which Austin already excels at.
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Rain, Rain, go away, please come back Monday so we can get this race in. Hopefully we’re not only watching racing, but also celebrating some cashed tickets this Sunday. Good luck on your Pala Casino 400 wagers!
Featured Image credit: Adam Glanzman/Getty Images
