NEWSLETTER
The annual – well, annual when the pandemic doesn’t cancel them – GM Meetings are underway in Carlsbad, California today, which means the MLB offseason hits another level this week. Typically, the GM Meetings are a time for early discussions with other clubs and free agent representatives, and an opportunity for an organization to really lay out its plan for the offseason.
Of course, it’s all the more difficult to know exactly how the GM Meetings will proceed this week when a league shutdown feels like it is just a few weeks away with the expiration of the CBA. Teams will lay the groundwork for trade talks and free agent signings this week as they always do, but will they be even more tentative than they already tend to be early in the offseason? Or will there be some teams getting extra aggressive to try to take advantage of that uncertainty?
I’ve never thought the Cubs would be a particularly aggressive club in the early going, with the exception of short-term, high-AAV, high-risk, high-upside starting pitchers that they might want to target. A lot of those guys are going to go early – as we just saw last night with Andrew Heaney – and if the Cubs want their preferred targets, they simply might HAVE to be aggressive even before the CBA expires.
To that end, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma previewed the GM Meetings this week, and they see the Wade Miley waiver claim as possibly being an indicator of where things stand for the Cubs on this very topic:
Once again, Cubs executives might have set the tone for the entire offseason before they even wheeled their suitcases onto the grounds of that same luxury hotel some 30 miles north of San Diego, where the GM meetings will take place this week. Except this time, it could be a sign of how aggressive president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer will be in trying to reconfigure a 91-loss team with almost no identity beyond manager David Ross, pitcher Kyle Hendricks and All-Star catcher Willson Contreras.
Wade Miley on his own isn’t all that exciting as a left-handed pitcher who’s about to turn 35 and pitch for his eighth team in the big leagues. But claiming a legitimate starter off waivers from a division rival and picking up his $10 million option for next year shows more creativity and optimism than the dour messaging that has framed recent offseasons of austerity.
In other words, as we’ve speculated, the Cubs’ willingness to jump on an opportunity to grab a short-term, high-AAV arm like Miley’s when he was there for the taking – even in early November, and long before we know anything about the CBA – could be a signal of how aggressive the Cubs can be on these types of players this month. It’s what we WANT them to be able to do, and maybe we’ve got a signal that they can do it.
Stay tuned for a lot of other rumors this week, for the Cubs and for other clubs, and then also the possibility of a small move or two.
Again, the meatiest part of free agency tends not to get underway until Qualifying Offers are accepted or rejected (due by November 17), and because of how close that is to the CBA expiration (December 1), it’s entirely possible there isn’t a lot of movement right now. But those short-term, high-risk guys who aren’t realistically going to be impacted by the trickle-down in the market of other pursuits, those are the ones where we might see movement sooner rather than later. The Cubs have plenty of money and plenty of roster space to be involved. (Also: priority minor league signings! Use this time to get on it!)
Meanwhile, the Cubs should have their baseball budget for next year in place by now, and with the new GM (Carter Hawkins) and AGM (Ehsan Bokhari) in place, the front office should be able to really lay down clear plans. It could be a good week, internally, even if we don’t hear or see as much on the outside as we might like.
At the end of the week, by the way, there are Owner’s Meetings, which I’m hoping will generate a (reasonable) response to the latest player CBA offer. I don’t think a final deal before December 1 is likely at this point – no one does – but if there’s going to be any chance, then I would think the sides have to start narrowing the gap on the core economic issues as soon as this week.
