NEWSLETTER
The Chicago Cubs haven’t done a ton yet this offseason to make firm and fast additions to the big league roster, but they have certainly done what we expected them to do on the bullpen side of things: accumulate interesting, upside arms on the cheap. Don’t read that as a criticism, either. They’ve been good at it for a couple years now, and I’m not going to start betting against the approach: get a huge volume of guys in the door who do one or two things that you can’t teach, try to massage some other part of their game to get overall improvement, and figure that you can hit on maybe 20 to 30% of them.
The latest is 30-year-old righty Joe Biagini, according to Arizona Phil, who says the Cubs have signed him to a minor league deal (yet unfiled with the league).
Having spent most of his minor league years as a starter, and then getting moved back-and-forth from the rotation and the bullpen by the Blue Jays in parts of 2017 and 2018, Biagini only made the full-time move to the bullpen in 2019, when he was sufficiently good that he became a mid-season trade piece. But after heading to the Astros in mid-2019, things fell apart for Biagini:
When you see one of these reclamation bullpen signings in the current Cubs era, it’s a virtual lock that you can go to his Statcast page and see some outlying data point, and sure enough, for Biagini, it’s the curveball spin:
To be sure, the curveball – like most of his pitches – got absolutely hammered in recent years, so you can’t assume that it’s a “good” pitch for him just because it has elite spin. But the fact that it does have elite spin suggests there might be some bones there for the Cubs to work with (it also gets elite movement, so it’s hard to say why he got such poor results with it). Moreover, I notice that Biagini started to incorporate a cutter more frequently the last couple years, and that was the one pitch that he WAS getting great results with. The Cubs love them some reliever cutters, folks.
Meanwhile, Biagini isn’t a fireballer, but he sits around 94 mph with the fastball, so that’s playable with the right secondaries.
Oh, also, the guy is apparently beloved anywhere he goes. It was impossible not to see it when I was searching around this morning for more information. Also, this is him:
High five redemption with the @BlueJays' Joe Biagini! ✋ #FallonTonight pic.twitter.com/SKLQLnhbAY
— The Tonight Show (@FallonTonight) November 19, 2016
Biagini’s is a name that actually came up at the Trade Deadline in 2019, not because he was connected to the Cubs in rumors, but because I just thought he was a guy the Cubs should target. At the time, the Blue Jays were selling, and I thought he would fit the mold of what the Cubs could afford to add that year. Plus I just liked what he could possibly do (as did the Astros, who traded for him before everything went sideways):
The 29-year-old righty is not an elite setup guy, and is far from a household name. He does not have a long track record of success, and he’s not a lock to turn some portion of your bullpen around. But what he is: (1) inexpensive ($900K this year), (2) controlled for three more arbitration years, (3) good performance (more in a moment), and, most importantly for this week, (4) probably available. Ken Rosenthal reports today that the Braves’ talks with the Blue Jays for a reliever are not about Giles or Hudson, but are instead about Biagini. Maybe those talks are too far advanced for anyone else to swoop in, but there’s a lot to like about Biagini for the Cubs.
First, because he’s not expensive this year in salary, the Cubs can actually afford to add him without having to artificially increase their prospect cost to get the other team to eat salary. Sucks that it’s a consideration, but it is.
Second, he’s posting a 3.75 ERA this year (18% better than league average), with a very nice 23.7%/7.9% K/BB rate set, a good 45.3% groundball rate, and a fine 36.2% hard contact rate. The only thing that’s burned him is the long ball, but man, I don’t see a good reason for his elevated 21.1% HR/FB rate this year. I think maybe he’s been unlucky: 6 of the 8 homers have come at the Rogers Centre, where the ball has really been flying – so much that it’s park factor for homers is far and away the highest in baseball.
Third, the Blue Jays tried to make him a starting pitcher in 2017, and it failed miserably – he didn’t really seem to get his footing as a reliever until this year. He could have even more potential to the right organization with the right pitching infrastructure.
Fourth, Biagini started incorporating a cutter much more this year, and it’s been fantastic for him.
I think this guy is actually, quietly, really good!
Here’s the catch (it’s not good, but it’s a catch that would also bring down the price): he is getting hammered by lefties this year, to the tune of a .274/.329/.616, with 7 of his 8 homers coming against lefties. He has absolutely rocked righties. Lefties have owned him.
HOWEVA, most of that damage from lefties, again, has come in the form of slugging at the Rogers Centre. Maybe something wonky is going on there, and – like Jesse Chavez and Arlington last year – you take him out, and boom, he’s a dude.
Biagini joins Trevor Kelley (minor league deal), Robert Stock (waiver claim), Jonathan Holder (big league signing), Gray Fenter (Rule 5 Draft), James Bourque (minor league signing), Jake Jewell (minor league signing), Jerry Vasto (minor league signing), and D.J. Snelten (minor league signing) as relief arms added to the organization since the offseason began.
