What Would Extensions Look Like for Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews?

The Chicago Blackhawks are in a weird space right now. For years, they’ve dodged the certainty that they needed to rebuild under the guidance of former GM Stan Bowman until, for a brief period in time, they said that they were going to rebuild.

Then, they pivoted back to the win-now mode by splashing it up this summer. The organization contested that they were still focused on rebuilding, reasoning that acquisitions like Seth and Caleb Jones were made with the long game in mind, and that could very well be true in the end. But, with Stan Bowman now departed and the Blackhawks now in search of a new hockey ops department and coaching staff after this season, it’s safe to assume that the organization will be in a rebuild mode for the foreseeable future.

I’m a fan of Kyle Davidson so far, and he’s been said to be the front runner for the permanent job. Davidson, or whoever ends up in that job long-term, has two big decisions to address in the not-too-distant future. What does the future hold for Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews?

Kane and Toews have skated a combined 2,024 games in Blackhawks sweaters and led the franchise to three Stanley Cups in a span of six seasons, an era that will go down as the greatest era in the history of the franchise when it’s all said and done. One day, their jerseys will hang in the rafters of the United Center; there’s no doubt about that. Still, both will be free agents after next season unless the parties agree on extensions for them between now and then. What might those extensions look like? Will all sides even desire to strike another agreement, and if so, can they find common ground numbers-wise?

All valid questions that we’ll try to flesh out today.

Patrick Kane

Patrick Kane is still skating like a front-line forward and producing at a point-per-game pace in his age-33 season with the Blackhawks, so it’s a bit easier when it comes to the numbers on an extension for Kaner to gauge than it will be for Jonathan Toews. For the sake of the exercise, let’s assume that all things equal, Patrick Kane wants to finish his career in Chicago. That’s a big first question answered.

Following that logic, there’s the question of what his contract might look like on the Blackhawks salary cap, and whether or not Patrick Kane is willing to take a discount to help the Blackhawks fill out the roster with talent around him, that would give them a shot at making another cup run before Kane hangs his skates up. It’s hard to predict how Kane might feel about that, so we’ll plan…

Kane will be 34-years-old when his current eight-year, $84 million extension concludes at the end of the 2022-23 season. Again, I’m not worried about the age for Kane, as he seems to be chugging right along and might be able to play at a high level into his late thirties. Looking at elite wingers in their mid-thirties, Alex Ovechkin gives us an excellent ceiling to start this at. Ovechkin is in the first year of a five-year extension that comes with a $9.5 million AAV and cap hit for a 35-year-old who might end up as the most prolific goal-scorer in NHL history by the time the deal expires. Ovechkin had logged 1,320 points in 1,197 games played at the time of the extension.

Patrick Kane will be at roughly (extrapolated over the next 136 games at the current 28-game pace that Kane is on this season) 1,240 points in 1,189 games after next season. Before doing any research at all, I pegged Kane at $9-9.5 million AAV on his next deal, but I think I might have overshot it a bit with the numbers now in front of me.

(Photo by Getty Images)

Kaner will go down as the best American-born player ever and one of (if not the) the best to ever do it in a Blackhawks sweater, but he’s not Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin’s current cap hit accounts for 11.6 percent of Washington’s total cap, and that’s probably the ceiling for Patrick Kane at that point. Shane Doan signed a four-year deal with an AAV of $5.3 million with the Coyotes at 35-years-old back in September 2012 with 788 points in 1,198 games to that point. Doan’s deal was 8.83 percent of the ‘Yotes total cap at that point, and that’s probably a good floor for Kane.

With Kane taking no hometown discount, I would say that a five-year extension at an AAV of $8.5 million would be a fair number for both sides. The extension would take Kane through his age-39 season and pay him just under what the Caps just gave Ovechkin last summer. In a recent report, Frank Seravalli estimated the NHL salary cap to go up to $82.5 million for the 2022-23 season and roughly $1 million per season for the next five seasons after that as part of a lag formula. If the 2023-24 salary cap were at $83.5 million, Kane’s $8.5 million cap hit would be 10.1 percent of the Blackhawks’ total cap space, or about 1.5 percentage points lower than Ovechkin’s cap hit percentage in Washington.

If Kane came down to an even $8 million cap, hit he would be at five years, $40 million on his final contract, and occupy 9.5 percent of the Blackhawks total cap space in year one, and presumably less each year after that. This type of deal allows Kane to be fairly compensated while allowing the Blackhawks to add talent around him in hopes of competing for another Stanley Cup run. As it stands today, Kane’s $10.5 million cap hit accounts for a whopping 12.8 percent of the Blackhawks total cap space.

Final Prediction: Five-years, $40 million ($8MM AAV/9.5% C.H.%)

Jonathan Toews

Like Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews’ current $10.5 million cap hit (on an identical contract to Kane’s current deal) accounts for 12.8 percent of the Blackhawks total cap space. Unlike Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews is not producing at a point-per-game pace at this point in his career. Toews is on a pace that will put him in the ballpark of 925 points in 1,107 games played at the end of next season, making him far less valuable than Kane at the same point.

Patrick Elias’s three-year, $16.5 million contract with the New Jersey Devils signed at 37-years-old in July 2013 is a 91 percent match when you pull comps for Jonathan Toews’s projected age, games, and points. Elias’s deal came with a $5.5 million cap hit, good for 8.5 percent of the Devils’ cap space during the 2013-14 season.

I’d say that an identical deal would be pretty fair for Jonathan Toews at his current production level. Toews would be 35-years-old, and he would be making $5.5 million per year, a fair number that would account for 6.5 percent of the Blackhawks 2023-24 salary cap space. If you couple Kane and Toews’s hypothetical new deals, that would account for 16.1 percent of the Blackhawks cap space, a much more manageable number than they currently account for (25.7 percent). That would give the Blackhawks an extra $8-10 million to work with each season.

The question for Toews then becomes; A) How much longer does he want to play? And B) Will he want to stay in Chicago at that number?

Jonathan Toews is a Hall of Famer. Jonathan Toews will not be worth more than $5-6 million AAV in his age-35 through age-38 seasons. Those two things can be true at the same time, and that’s a reality that Toews will have to come to grips with.

(Photo by Getty Images)

I can see a scenario where Toews doesn’t sign another long-term extension with the Blackhawks. Whether it be because he retires or wishes to finish his career somewhere else, I can see the Toews era in Chicago come to an end in the next two years. If Toews wants to continue playing beyond next season and doesn’t want to play at that cap hit, then I would imagine that the Blackhawks would accommodate a trade to another team of his desire. Probably a Canadian team that would give Toews a shot at winning another Stanley Cup sooner than later?

If he stays in Chicago, I think that Elias’s deal is a reasonable ceiling for him at this point in his career.

Final Prediction: Three-years, $15 million ($5MM AAV/ 5.9% C.H.%

In the end…

Whether it be Kyle Davidson or someone else, they have a hell of a decision on their hands next year regarding the futures of two of the franchise’s greatest players. If I was to take a gaze into my crystal ball, I genuinely believe that Patrick Kane will get paid accordingly, produce the same, and finish out his career in Chicago.

As for Jonathan Toews, I’m not as confident either way. Whether he takes the pay cut and stays here, departs Chicago for another franchise, or hangs it up altogether, none of those scenarios would surprise me.

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written by

Patrick grew up in Chicago's Bridgeport and Garfield Ridge neighborhoods before moving to the Western Suburbs of Chicago before eventually relocating to the Las Vegas area with his family in 2023. He started with Bleacher Nation in 2021 and has spent time as a Staff Writer and on the Chicago Blackhawks beat. He is currently a writer and editor at Bleacher Nation covering the Chicago Bears and the NFL at large and the author of the Bleacher Nation Newsletter. Patrick is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA).

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Hat Tricks for Lardis and Vanacker, More Prospect Goals, and Other Blackhawks Bullets

I would absolutely love to have a whole lot of exciting, earth-shattering Blackhawks content for you on a Saturday morning but... they haven't played in a full week. However, tonight we get the big one: USA vs Canada in Montreal...

USA Blowout Win, Prospect Talk, Rockford Injuries, and Other Valentine’s Day Blackhawks Bullets

The United States blew the doors off of Finland last night in the 4 Nations Face-Off, scoring six unanswered goals -- four of which came in the third period. Brady and Matthew Tkachuk led the way with two goals each;...

2025 NHL Mock Draft: Mid-February Full Two-Round Projections

Since the NHL is taking a couple weeks off in the middle of February for the 4 Nations Face-Off, why not take advantage of no Blackhawks games to chase and update our full two-round 2025 mock draft! With the calendar...

Around the NHL: World Cup Coming Back, CBA Update, Timing Changes Coming? More

The NHL world is on pause for a couple weeks while we enjoy the 4 Nations Face-Off, but that doesn't mean there isn't news being made around the game. Indeed, there was some important news that came from the NHL/NHLPA...

BN Blackhawks Top 20 Prospect Rankings: Mid-February Update

It's been a little less than a month since we took stock of the Blackhawks' prospect pipeline but it's been a busy time. Chicago's pool was ranked fourth in the NHL by Scott Wheeler at The Athletic. The Blackhawks have...

Incredible 4 Nations Start, Le Magnifique, GMKD Said Some Interesting Things, and Other Blackhawks Bullets

Before we get into the fantastic hockey in Montreal last night, I'm going to start with some Blackhawks focused stuff because Scott Powers at The Athletic shared a terrific Q&A with Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson on Wednesday. They talk...

Blackhawks College Prospects: Head-to-Head Action Highlights Packed Weekend

For the first time in a while, all ten of the Blackhawks' college prospects are in action this weekend. And, for those tuning in, we'll only have to search for four games on Friday and Saturday night because we've got...

Blackhawks Prospect Oliver Moore Talks Coaches, Winning, All-Around Play, Going Pro, More

Earlier this week I chatted with Minnesota's two Blackhawks prospects, Sam Rinzel and Oliver Moore. I shared some of what Rinzel had to say about his game, the Hobey Baker, turning pro and more on Monday evening. I enjoyed the...

NHL All-Quarter Century Fan Voting Now Open! (Blackhawks Fans – Do the Thing)

On Wednesday, the NHL opened the ballots for the league's All-Quarter Century Team for fans to participate. You can vote for ten (10) players from across the NHL. Fans can vote online or on the artist formerly known as Twitter,...

Blackhawks Fan Guide to the 4 Nations Face-Off

It's Wednesday, Feb. 12 and there hasn't been a Blackhawks game in (counts on fingers) too many days. But there will be professional hockey to watch tonight! The 4 Nations Face-Off begins this evening with Canada in action against Sweden....

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Florida Atlantic vs. Temple Prediction: Spread, Total Points, Moneyline Picks – Sunday, February 16, 2025

The Temple Owls (14-11, 6-6 AAC) are underdogs (+2.5) as they attempt to stop a three-game losing streak when they host the Florida Atlantic Owls (14-10, 7-4 AAC) at 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, February 16, 2025 at Liacouras Center....

Colgate vs. Boston University Prediction: Spread, Total Points, Moneyline Picks – Saturday, February 15, 2025

The Boston University Terriers (13-14, 7-7 Patriot League) are underdogs (by 3.5 points) to extend a nine-game home winning streak when they host the Colgate Raiders (11-16, 8-6 Patriot League) on Saturday, February 15, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET. The...

Maryland vs. Iowa Prediction: Picks and Betting Odds – Sunday, February 16, 2025

The No. 25 Maryland Terrapins (19-6, 9-5 Big Ten) host the Iowa Hawkeyes (14-10, 5-8 Big Ten) after winning 13 home games in a row. The Terrapins are heavy favorites by 12.5 points in the matchup, which begins at 5:00...

Memphis vs. Wichita State Prediction: Picks and Betting Odds – Sunday, February 16, 2025

Two streaking teams meet when the No. 14 Memphis Tigers (21-4, 11-1 AAC) visit the Wichita State Shockers (14-10, 4-7 AAC) on Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET. The Shockers are 6.5-point underdogs and will try to keep...

Oregon vs. Rutgers Prediction: Picks and Betting Odds – Sunday, February 16, 2025

The Oregon Ducks (17-8, 6-8 Big Ten) host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (12-13, 5-9 Big Ten) in a matchup of Big Ten teams at Matthew Knight Arena, starting at 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, February 16, 2025. The Scarlet Knights...

Nebraska vs. Northwestern Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Sunday, February 16, 2025

Big Ten foes square off when the Nebraska Cornhuskers (16-9, 6-8 Big Ten) visit the Northwestern Wildcats (13-12, 4-10 Big Ten) at Welsh-Ryan Arena, tipping off at 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, February 16, 2025. The Wildcats are 1.5-point underdogs...

ACF Fiorentina vs. Como 1907 Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – February 16

The second league matchup between ACF Fiorentina and Como 1907 this season is on Sunday at Stadio Artemio Franchi, after Fiorentina won the first meeting 2-0. Below, you can find our prediction for this contest.ACF Fiorentina vs. Como 1907 Prediction...

Former White Sox Closer Bobby Jenks is Battling Cancer

Very sad news to share this evening for Chicago baseball fans, as former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks revealed that he is battling stage four stomach cancer. We stand with you, Bobby Jenks. Thinking of Bobby as he is being...

Ivy League Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | February 15

The Columbia Lions versus the Harvard Crimson is one of four games on the Saturday college basketball slate that includes an Ivy League team. If you look below, you can see our best bets for that conference action.How to Bet...

Big East Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | February 16

Big East teams will be on Sunday's college basketball schedule in one game, the Creighton Bluejays squaring off against the St. John's Red Storm, and here are some best bets for you to make.How to Bet on Big East GamesBest...

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