NEWSLETTER
The Miami Heat were roughly 3 minutes away from missing the postseason entirely. In case you forgot, the Bulls had them on the ropes in the second round of the Play-In Tournament. But a dominant 15-1 run would propel them into a matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks as the No. 8 seed.
The spark that was lit during those final few desperate minutes against Chicago burnt up until Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals. The Denver Nuggets claimed their first championship in franchise history, ending what was a true Cinderella run for Jimmy Butler and his band of misfits. So then, we wonder …
What Now for the Miami Heat?
While an NBA Finals appearance is usually a good enough reason to run things back, Miami may not have the option to go down that path. As great as their playoff run was, legitimate roster concerns came to life during the regular season. Miami sat just 21st in net rating and had the 6th-worst effective field goal percentage in the NBA. Not to mention, questions loom about the future of the aging Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler duo. Butler hasn’t played more than 65 games since before the 2017-18 season, while the 37-year-old Lowry was coming off the bench by the end of the season.
None of that is to say the organization can’t continue to prioritize winning in the near-term. But for Miami to do that, they’ll likely have to shuffle the deck. Indeed, according to both The Athletic’s Shams Charania and ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, the organization seems to realize exactly that.
Charania reported on FanDuel TV that Miami will “explore” what the star market has to offer this offseason. He specifically name-dropped Kyrie Irving, who the franchise reportedly made a run earlier in the season when Brooklyn made him available. Windhorst told a similar story on ESPN, particularly mentioning that Miami wants to capitalize on their current window with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
“Things are lining up for the Heat to go star hunting, which they do on an annual basis this year, but particularly this year,” Windhorst said. “With where Butler and Adebayo are at in their careers and with the window before new rules come in that will make it harder to keep a group together in two years, this is the time for the Heat to go.”
Whether it be Shaquille O’Neal, LeBron James, or Butler, the Heat have consistently proven over the years that they can repeatedly add high-level talent to build sustained success. There is no denying they are in a good position to attract stars yet again after making two Finals appearances in four seasons. Not to mention, they currently have the kind of assets needed to make a deal work.
The Miami Heat control their own pick with no restriction in five of the next seven drafts. The only area where they could run into trouble is with their 2025 pick, which is currently lottery protected and owned by the Oklahoma City Thunder. Since you can’t trade picks in back-to-back drafts, Miami can only trade two future first-rounders at the moment (they could always offer pick swaps in the others). But, if they can ensure that OKC gets that first in 2025 and it doesn’t slide into 2026, they could open up an additional future first to trade.
Along with three first-round picks, Miami has multiple large contracts to use in a possible trade. Lowry is owed $29.6 million next season and Duncan Robinson is owed $19.4 million. Even Caleb Martin offers the Heat a decent-sized $7.1 million to include in a package, which could certainly attract some teams after a breakout playoff performance.
Of course, I’d also be remiss not to mention Tyler Herro. The 23-year-old remains arguably the Heat’s greatest trade asset. He’s averaged over 20.0 points in each of the past two seasons and is a 38.3% 3-point shooter during his first four seasons in the NBA. While he might not be the best young asset available this offseason, there are far worse options for a team to take back if their star happened to demand a trade. Herro is also about to begin a four-year, $120 million deal in 2023-24, which would obviously help with the finances.
So … the Chicago Bulls?
If the Bulls were to enter sell mode this offseason, I have to imagine the two parties have at least one conversation. And I think we all know around whom that conversation would center.
Look, DeMar DeRozan’s mentality might seem to fit the “Heat culture,” but it’s pretty hard to see a world where he makes any sense next to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. As for Zach LaVine, the on-court fit makes far more sense.
LaVine would give the Miami Heat the kind of reliable secondary scorer it surely needs. He would provide the spacing and shooting necessary to give Butler the room he needs to work, as well as the active off-ball presence that could slide in well around a solid playmaker in Adebayo. Miami held just the 25th-ranked offensive rating this regular season and shot the 4th-worst behind the arc. Adding LaVine into the mix would undoubtedly elevate that side of the ball.
Indeed, if the Heat were to strike out in pursuit of someone like Damian Lillard or sign-and-trade candidates like Kyrie Irving or Fred VanVleet, who is to say they wouldn’t turn their attention to LaVine? His scoring chops would only become that much more enticing, and he’s technically owed less than another potential trade candidate in the Wizards’ Bradley Beal.
We also should note that LaVine has been directly tied to Miami in the past. HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto name-dropped four teams who could have interest in LaVine should he become available just before this season’s trade deadline (emphasis mine):
“If the Chicago Bulls make Zach LaVine available before the trade deadline, rival executives are keeping an eye on several teams who could have interest in trading for him, including the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks, and Miami Heat.”
OK, but let’s not forget about the other end of this conversation. If the Chicago Bulls were looking to move LaVine, are we really sure Miami would be their first choice? While Herro is a decent asset to get back in return, you’d really have to be bought into his ability to become an All-Star-caliber player.
Likewise, I know a lot of other draft picks I’d like to have in my arsenal than those that belong to Miami. As stated earlier in this post, this team has repeatedly pulled off adding big-name talent. They have missed the postseason just four times since 2003-04 season. In other words, the chance of those picks becoming the kind of high-lottery selections you hope for is extremely low.
So, yeah, my best guess would be that Chicago tries to speak with several other candidates first if a big splash is on their minds. Top teams in this year’s lottery like the Hornets (No. 2) and Trail Blazers (No. 3) should undoubtedly be at the top of their wishlist. New York is another heavily-rumored destination that has seemingly more valuable draft capital go around. Again, I don’t consider a deal with Miami as unfathomable, but I certainly wouldn’t label it as the most likely landing spot in the event that the Bulls pick a new direction.
PS: I would also have to swear off basketball and move into a remote village in Iceland if Jimmy Butler and Zach LaVine ended up winning a ring together on the Miami Heat.
