Should We Fear Tougher Offensive Environment for Cubs Youngsters? and Other Bullets

javier baez featureHappy Presidents Day! Wikipedia says that the holiday is still technically just Washington’s Birthday (I didn’t realize the wide range of state differences in what today is considered), though we’ve obviously colloquialized it into an all presidents thing. I guess that means you owe Theo Epstein a muffin basket, whatever state you live in.

  • Does it seem like rookies are having an easier time succeeding offensively in the big leagues in recent years? A harder time? There was a fair bit of literature out there last year when Javier Baez was struggling in his first taste of the big leagues, suggesting that it’s a particularly tough time for young, elite positional prospects to succeed in the big leagues because (1) they’re scouted more than ever and they enter a league with so much information already available on them that pitchers know exactly how to attack (and they are the best pitchers in the world, so they can execute it), and (2) pitcher improvement and specialization is making it harder for offensive players to succeed, regardless of age or standing. Jeff Sullivan takes on the question of whether the bigs are getting harder for rookies, and it makes for a very interesting visual read. The short version? While it appears that rookie positional players have had a slightly downtick in performance in the last few years, it’s not a huge amount, and it’s still within the normal range if you look back 25 years.
  • Given how much the 2015 Chicago Cubs will necessarily lean on rookie – and rookie-like – offensive players, that’s tentatively good news, such as you can take much away from it at all. As near as we can tell, there may not be a reason to believe guys like Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, and Addison Russell will be disproportionately abused as rookies, at least not compared to how it’s always been for rookies in the big leagues. That is to say, it’s tough for rookies, because they’re making one of the most difficult leaps in sports. But, presently, we don’t have enough evidence to say that the leap has become a ton more difficult in the last half decade. (Unless, of course, the last three years of declining rookie performance are not merely a statistical blip, and are a signal of some fundamental change within the game. That’s unlikely, by the way, because, as Sullivan puts it, “Every season, teams are a little bit smarter, but it wouldn’t get unusually tough for rookies overnight.”)
  • Joel Sherman offers the 50 most fascinating people in baseball as we head into the 2015 season, and, though it’s a little New York-heavy, it’s an interesting read. The only Cubs entrant is Joe Maddon at number five, but it’s really something of a catch-all for the Cubs as a whole.
  • Former Cubs third base coach Wendell Kim – Wavin’ Wendell – has passed away. Kim loved to roll the dice at third base, and, while I’m not sure the metrics would have agreed with his decisions all the time, it sure made for a lot of excitement.
  • Joe Maddon was honored for his work off the diamond, and he talks about what the Rays have to work with as they move forward.
  • For the very statistically-minded among you, here’s another look at the various projection systems’ efficacy. To me, the most interesting thing there is that, as you may have intuitively expected, the best-performing projection system is actually an amalgamation of all of them. In other words, where you see strong consensus among the projection systems for a player’s performance, that is something about which to take note.
  • Three messages from Cubs Business President Crane Kenney on Presidents Day.
  • Since it’s Presidents Day, your holy-crap-that-can’t-be-true fact of the day: the 10th president of the United States was John Tyler, who was born in 1790, and he has two living grandsons. You read that sentence correctly.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    It Took Two At-Bats for Cody Bellinger’s First Home Run Since Being Activated

    Cody Bellinger's first plate appearance of this game (and first PA since returning from two fractured ribs) may have ended in a fly out to right field, but that was after an impressive 12-pitch at-bat. That, alone, was a welcomed...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 3, Padres 2 – May 7, 2024

    Well ... THANK FREAKIN' GOD, EH? In case you weren't watching tonight, this was one of those games that FELT like the Cubs were up by five runs, even though it was 1-0 through the seventh inning. And that's because...

    MICHAEL BUSCH SAVES THE NIGHT! WALK-OFF HOME RUUUUUUUUUUUN!

    Oh my god, thank you, Michael Busch. After Shota Imanaga's stellar start was looking spoiled by a weak offensive showing, the Cubs were able to tie things up in the 8th inning and shut down the Padres in the top...

    OUCH…Willson Contreras Was Just Hit with a J.D. Martinez Swing (UPDATE: Fractured)

    Oouuuuuch. Anyone who's watched Willson Contreras play - or has read the stories - knows that the former Cubs catcher is one of the toughest players in MLB. He always played through injuries and would hobble up to his post...

    Pre-Gamin’: Padres at Cubs (6:40 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — With Dylan Cease scheduled to pitch for the Padres in the finale tomorrow, the Cubs are really going to want to take this game tonight. Fortunately, they have Shota Imanaga on the mound ... and CODY BELLINGER...

    Marcus Semien is a Triple Shy of the Cycle … in the 2nd Inning!

    Well, have yourself a day, Marcus Semien. The Rangers infielder is 3-3 with a home run, double, single, four RBI, and a run scored today against the Oakland Athletics, and they're only in the second inning! Semien led the game...

    Thinking About the Cubs Lineup AFTER Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki Return

    UPDATE: Cody Bellinger is officially back with the Chicago Cubs, having been called up after publication of this article. Original post follows. *** According to Taylor McGregor on last night's broadcast, we are maybe a day away from Cody Bellinger...

    CODY BELLINGER IS BACK (Plus Several Other Cubs Roster Moves and Injury Updates)

    No point in burying the lede! The Chicago Cubs center fielder, Cody Bellinger, is officially back with the team just TWO WEEKS after fracturing multiple ribs on a collision with the center field wall. I'd say that's as "best case...

    Keegan Thompson is at Wrigley Field, So Apparently a Move is Coming

    Sam Bernero has an eagle-eye and a steady camera, so when there are players newly in town around Wrigley Field, she is frequently the first person to have it. So it is today, with the return of Keegan Thompson to...

    MLBits: Surprising AL Central, Wheeler Rolls, Shōta’s Fastball, Buehler’s Back, More

    One of baseball's biggest surprises through six weeks? The AL Central has been pretty good this season. Plus, Walker Buehler returns to a major league mound after 22 months, Shōta Imanaga's four-seamer draws national attention, and more in today's MLB...

    Latest News

    Rangers vs. Athletics Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

    The Texas Rangers (21-16) will look to Marcus Semien, red hot after a four-hit game, to lead them in a matchup with the Oakland Athletics (17-20) on Wednesday at 3:37 PM ET on NBCS-CA. The Rangers are -127 favorites for...

    The Myrtle Beach Classic Betting Odds, Streaming Live, TV Channel – Round 1

    Erik van Rooyen is the favorite (+2500) at the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic ($4M purse), from May 9-12 at The Dunes Golf and Beach Club in Myrtle Beach, SC.Taylor Pendrith shot -23 at the AT&T Byron Nelson to notch a...

    Dodgers vs. Marlins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

    The Los Angeles Dodgers (25-13) roll into Wednesday's matchup with the Miami Marlins (10-28) looking to extend a six-game winning streak. The contest starts at 3:10 PM ET on SportsNet LA with the Dodgers listed as -283 favorites on the...

    Rangers vs. Athletics Probable Starting Pitchers – May 8

    The Oakland Athletics (17-20), who lost their previous three games, face the Texas Rangers (21-16) at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on Wednesday. First pitch is at 3:37 PM ET.The probable starters are Michael Lorenzen (2-1) for the Rangers and JP Sears...

    Padres vs. Cubs Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

    The San Diego Padres (19-20), led by Jake Cronenworth on an 11-game hitting streak, will meet the Chicago Cubs (22-15) Wednesday at Wrigley Field. The Padres are -126 favorites for the matchup, which starts at 2:20 PM ET on SDPA.Dylan...

    Royals vs. Brewers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

    The Kansas City Royals (21-16) and the Milwaukee Brewers (21-14) meet in the rubber match of a three-game series on Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET. The Royals are -133 favorites on the moneyline to win the series over the Brewers...

    Best MLB Prop Bets Today, May 8, 2024

    The MLB's 16-game schedule today should provide some fireworks. The matchups include the Boston Red Sox squaring off against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park.Keep reading and you'll discover MLB player prop bets for each and every contest on Wednesday's...

    Dodgers vs. Marlins Probable Starting Pitchers – May 8

    The Los Angeles Dodgers (25-13) look to add to a six-game winning streak as they host the Miami Marlins (10-28) at 3:10 PM ET on Wednesday.The probable starters are Gavin Stone (2-1) for the Dodgers and Ryan Weathers (2-3) for...

    Pirates vs. Angels Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

    Following a big two-homer game last time out, Kevin Pillar leads the Los Angeles Angels (13-23) into action as +111 underdogs against the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-20). First pitch from PNC Park at 12:35 PM ET on Wednesday, live on SportsNet...

    Phillies vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

    Led by Bryce Harper (three-game homer streak), the Philadelphia Phillies (26-11) are favorites versus the Toronto Blue Jays (16-20) Wednesday at 1:05 PM ET. Sportsbooks have named the Phillies as -161 favorites for the game, which airs on NBCS-PH.Philadelphia's Aaron...

    more cubs news