NEWSLETTER
IT’S FINALLY HAPPENING! THE CHICAGO CUBS ARE SIGNING A FREE AGENT! AND HE’S A GOOD ONE!
Per multiple reports – Bob Nightengale, Jon Heyman – the Cubs have reached a deal with Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga, pending a physical. Hopefully that step is a formality, but I guess it’s been such a long, cold offseason that I don’t want to get too ahead of myself, especially since there’s a hard cut-off on finalizing every last detail (his posting period ends on Thursday). Let’s just hope this all goes smoothly and a deal is finalized.
More soon, with the terms yet to come out, and then some thoughts on the implications for the Cubs’ rotation, the rest of the offseason, and the impact Shota Imanaga will have on the team going forward. We’ve gotten into him in the past, since the Cubs have been a rumored suitor all offseason, going all the way back to November.
The short version is that Imanaga, 30, has been one of the best starting pitchers in Japan the last few seasons, with results comparable to those of Kodai Senga, who signed with the Mets last year and pitched very well in his debut season. The two pitchers are not especially similar in their repertoires, mind you, so hopefully Imanaga sees the same level of success in the MLB transition.
Imanaga led the NPB in strikeouts this past season (174), didn’t walk anyone (24), and posted a 2.80 ERA over 148.0 innings and 22 starts. He was even better in 2022 (2.26 ERA). You might also remember him from his dominant performance in the WBC this past year.
A 5’10” strike-thrower with a 91-93mph fastball with great carry, Shota Imanaga is not an overwhelming power pitcher, but he has struck out a whole lot of batters in a contact-heavy league. He gets a lot of swings out of the zone on his slider, curveball, and splitter, which are all designed in one way or another to get chase off of the fastball.
Seen by most as a mid-rotation starter in MLB, with maybe a little upside from there, Imanaga figures to slot in with the Cubs after Justin Steele, lengthening the rotation a good bit. The depth was always there, but you wanted to have another surer thing in place, together with Steele, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, and Drew Smyly, among others.
Some Shota Imanaga highlights for you:
Still more to come on this front, particularly after a deal is finalized. For now, I’m just very happy that it looks like the Cubs might get one of their preferred starting pitching targets.
UPDATE: This would be really fun timing, as it would make it possible for Shota to debut at CubsCon:
UPDATE 2: Here’s your word of caution: the final-final deal is not done yet. It’s rare that things fall apart at this stage, but I’ll do my dance when it’s officially official:
From The Athletic: “There is a strong sense of optimism that the Chicago Cubs will sign Shota Imanaga, league sources said Tuesday night, though there is no formal agreement in place and the two sides are still working through all the details before Thursday’s deadline for the Japanese pitcher to finalize a contract with a major-league club.”
In other words, there could still be some contract language that needs to be ironed out – plus the reported physical tomorrow – before everything is totally final.
UPDATE 3: A litttttle bit on the possible contract:
That could still be a lot of things. On an AAV basis, that’d be similar to what Senga got from the Mets, for what it’s worth. Lower than some of the more aggressive rumors, though.
UPDATE 4: Wow. This is a bit jarring:
Obviously that’s waaaaay lower than the earlier rumors, which instantly makes me wonder whether the scouting on Imanaga is extremely soft, or there are potential health concerns, or both. The latter would make sense in terms of a deal that guarantees only the first two years and “can grow” to four years.
On the one hand, less of a commitment means less risk and more flexibility. On the other hand, I don’t love what a very small commitment implies about Imanaga’s projections and/or health. I’m going to reserve MOST of my opining until we actually know what the deal looks like. But this is really modest.
(At least it means the Cubs can do a whole lot more from here, right?)
