Kyle Hendricks’ Brutal Start, the Cubs’ Limited Options, Some Reason for Optimism

There’s really no way to sugar-coat this: The first three starts of Kyle Hendricks’ season could not have gone worse. Like, almost literally. According to ESPN Stats and Info, the 17 earned runs Kyle Hendricks has allowed through three games are tied for the second most by a Cubs pitcher over his first three games of a season … since earned runs became an official stat in 1913.

Kyle Hendricks’ Rough Start

Here’s a quick look back at those numbers, in case you already mentally blocked out the trauma.

@TEX: 3.2 IP, 9H, 5ER, 2BB, 2K
vsLAD: 4.0 IP, 8H, 5ER, 2BB, 4K
@SDP: 5.0 IP, 9H, 7ER, 0BB, 2K

With 26 hits, including 5 homers, and four walks, opposing batters are currently slashing a ridiculous .419/.455/.774 off Hendricks this season. And it all adds up to a 12.08 ERA and -0.3 fWAR. I don’t know how many other ways to say it. It’s been brutal. And the fact that this is all coming at a time when Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon are out makes matters worse.

And the timing isn’t just bad because for the production of the rotation. Kyle Hendricks’ slow start is also hurting the Cubs bullpen, which is also down a few key arms* and being overworked in large part because of Hendricks short outings. That means Hendricks’ performance has been hurting the Cubs both directly (in the games he’s started) *and also* indirectly (impacting future games by way of wearing down the bullpen further).

*Julian Merryweather is the only big injury in the bullpen, but because of the injuries in the rotation, the bullpen is arguably also missing Javier Assad and Ben Brown.

What Are the Cubs’ Options?

Unfortunately, the Cubs don’t have much of a choice here, but to keep starting Kyle Hendricks. Like I mentioned, the Cubs are already on their sixth and seventh starter, and the bullpen can’t afford to lose Drew Smyly (who might not be better anyway). So even if you were inclined to kick Kyle Hendricks from the rotation (and I’m not yet, for the record, but hold that thought), they really don’t have a choice but to keep starting him. At least until Jameson Taillon is back.

But even then, it feels more likely that Ben Brown simply shifts back down to Iowa to continue starting until the next opportunity arrises — or even more likely, helps gobble up innings out of the bullpen.

And in case you were thinking it, no, I don’t think the Cubs will call up their top pitching prospect, Cade Horton, straight from Double-A Tennessee, where he’s only made one (4.0 inning) start so far this season. He’ll probably be up at some point this year if all goes well, but I don’t see that being an immediate solution.

No, for the near-future (pre-Taillon’s return), Kyle Hendricks isn’t going anywhere. And even after Taillon comes back, Hendricks is likely sticking around. Maybe – MAYBE – that changes when Justin Steele also returns, but that’s still a ways away. And even then, bumping Hendricks would necessarily require (1) everyone else in the rotation to be healthy (no safe bet…) and (2) Javier Assad still producing like a starter that you want in the rotation full-time.

But I won’t leave you like this. Let’s talk about how this can turn around for Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs.

Reasons for Optimism

Even though the results have been horrible and he doesn’t quite look the part right now (specifically, his command just seems to be a little off), there are actually a lot of reasons for some guarded optimism. If you’ll allow me, let’s do this bullet style.

For one, it’s been three starts. Let’s not go nuts over a sample that small. Plenty of pitchers have horrible three game stretches at various points in the season, it just always stands out even worse at the beginning of the year.

For another, those three starts were against three of the best offenses in MLB: Texas Rangers (130 wRC+, 2nd in MLB), Los Angeles Dodgers (125 wRC+, 3rd in MLB), and San Diego Padres (113 wRC+, 8th in MLB). And two of those games were on the road. So, yeah, the context there is pretty critical.

There’s also the fact that we’ve all thought Kyle Hendricks was “washed” before. But don’t forget how he was quietly awesome last season. After getting a late-start to the season, Hendricks made 24 starts for the Cubs totaling 137.0 IP with a 3.74 ERA (14% better than the league average pitcher) and 4.13 FIP (12% better than average).

Then there’s the fact that Kyle Hendricks is currently hurling his highest overall fastball velocity since 2016 (88.1 MPH). So at a minimum, it’s probably fair to say he FEELS pretty good. And when he feels good and can create the distance between his fastball and changeup, he tends to have success (the absence of the curveball yesterday, though does concern me).

And if all that wasn’t enough, here are some 2024 stats that will absolutely not square up with what you probably have in your head. But numbers are numbers, and I’m just the messenger:

86.5 MPH (t-14th best in MLB) – exactly in line with his career mark.

8.7 degree launch angle (18th best) – considerably better than his career mark

33.3 hardhit% (t-20th in MLB) – close to his career mark

50 GB% (t-19th in MLB) – well above his career mark

.429 BABIP (3rd highest in MLB) and nearly 150 points worse than his career mark (again, despite similar batted ball numbers).

Now, there’s not only positive signs. For example, his barrel rate is up a good amount, and that’s a big thing. Meanwhile, batters are offering at slightly fewer pitches out of the zone and more pitches in the zone while making more contact in the zone than ever. To put that simply: Kyle Hendricks is missing fewer bats and getting barreled up more than ever. I don’t think that’s enough to account for the 150-point discrepancy in his BABIP, when SO MUCH of his other contact has been hit softly and on the ground. But it’s certainly a factor.

But there’s a reason his actual wOBA allowed (.528) is so much higher than his expected wOBA (.421). The latter mark is also extremely not good, but we’re talking about the difference between being the worst pitcher in baseball … and just having a rough stretch against three REALLY good offenses.

And when it comes to a conversation about potentially punting him from the rotation with no good fallback options, that’s enough for me to pump the brakes.

So, yeah, I am not here to tell you Kyle Hendricks has been anything CLOSE to good this season. He has not been. He’s been bad. His spin rates are down, his barrels are up, and the results have been horrible. You can’t just ignore that. But there is some reason to believe it’ll get better. And even if you’re not there yet, I’ll remind you that the Cubs don’t really have any options. 🙂 Happy Thursday.