NEWSLETTER
The plan for the Chicago Bears mock drafts was simple: one after the Super Bowl, another after the combine, another after free agency, and one final swing before the 2024 NFL Draft, with the possibility of an extra installment if and when Justin Fields was traded.
But nothing is ever as simple as it seems. Thirty-six hours after I published the post-combine version, the Bears made a trade and not the one we were all waiting on. Adding Ryan Bates for a fifth-round pick changed my second version of the mock. It removed a fifth-round pick from the equation and changed the value I placed on Jackson Powers-Johnson in the first round.
So, I returned to the drawing board because accuracy is important, as I said when I started this series. The purpose is to inform. Which players would realistically help the Bears become a better team in 2024, and what do they bring to the table? For that reason, I’ve had some repeat selections. I feel strongly that those players fit in certain positions in the draft for the Bears.
On Tuesday, I released a quarterback carousel story in which I tried to map out the likeliest landing spots for quarterbacks potentially on the move this offseason. In doing that exercise, my feelings on the quarterback market, specifically how it impacts Justin Fields’ trade market, changed.
The unfortunate reality for the Chicago Bears is that Justin Fields isn’t going to fetch the lofty returns opined by some of the industry’s most knowledgeable minds at the onset of the offseason. Once thought of as a player who could bring back a first-round pick (which I never believed) or, at worst, a package that included a second-round pick (which seemed a hell of a lot more realistic at the time), Justin Fields’s market is a shell of what we hoped it would be.
In mapping out where all the quarterbacks would land and factoring in the depth (not necessarily the overall quality) of this year’s quarterback class, I came away with a much different view of the quarterback market, which doesn’t justify a second-round pick for Fields in 2024. So, again, it was back to the drawing board.
Chicago Bears 7-Round Mock Draft: 2.2
TRADE!
I think the Bears will end up trading Fields before the draft, so let’s get this out of the way right now. I said it the other day, and I believe this to be true of Justin Fields’ return: its value will come in creativity.
I don’t see anyone giving the Bears a one or two for Fields. Perhaps a three, but likely a fourth-rounder in this year’s draft. Like it or not, the Bears are selling low on Fields, an incomplete quarterback with tremendous athleticism and a great deep ball at times, who has struggled to be a consistent passer in the NFL.
If the Bears want to maximize their return, they may have to take a hit on the front end and accept a mid-round pick for Fields in 2024. But there’s room for creativity in this scenario, where the Bears could reap a reward if Fields can realize some of that potential or if the team that trades for him decides to invest in him long-term.
For a scenario like this, the Giants QB situation interests me. Daniel Jones’ contract was a miss by Joe Schoen and the Giants. But I don’t see them cutting bait … yet. He’ll likely start the season as the starter, but finishing it as such isn’t a guarantee. At No. 6, New York is positioned to take a quarterback, likely one of the second-tier quarterbacks projected as potential first-rounders, in J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Micahel Penix Jr.
I think the Giants would be better served by finding their Daniel Jones insurance—and possible successor—in a trade while using that fifth pick on one of the big three wide receivers in the draft class. So, let’s send Justin Fields to the Giants to be that insurance and potential successor to Jones.
The Bears will get the Giants’ 2024 fourth-round pick up front, giving them an extra selection in the middle rounds, and we’re going to get creative on the back end. New York sends a conditional fourth-round pick in 2025 that can convert into a second-round pick if Fields starts more than eight games for the Giants in 2024; they sign him to a contract extension or franchise tag him next offseason.
Bears Receive
Giants Receive
Round 1, Pick 1 (via CAR): QB Caleb Williams, USC
This is the easy choice. For two years, Caleb Williams has been the top quarterback prospect in this year’s draft class. The Chicago Bears are resetting the clock at quarterback and taking Williams here. He’s a can-not-pass-on prospect, period, point blank.
TRADE!
With no second-round pick and none seemingly coming in a potential Justin Fields trade, coupled with my belief that the big three wide receivers will be gone before the Bears are back on the clock in the first round at No. 9, we’re trading back and getting an extra pick this year and next year from the Seattle Seahawks.
Bears Receive
Seahawks Receive
Round 1, Pick 16 (via SEA): C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
The Bears need a center, and they get one with their second first-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. The top three wideouts were off the board when I allowed Seattle to move up to No. 9 and add a pair of third-round picks, one for this year and one for next, in addition to the pick that netted us the top center in the draft.
Powers-Johnson is a former Oregon standout with immense power at the center position. He has smooth footwork, a balanced base, a strong punch, excellent upper-body torque, and is very aware. He blocks two guys at once, sets a heavy anchor, and rarely gets pushed back. In the run game, he’s tough, physical, and regularly knocks opponents back. However, he sometimes lunges, leans, pops up too upright, and misses his target. He’s a one-year starter with relatively few games played.
Round 3, Pick 75: EDGE Gabriel Murphy, UCLA
Murphy becomes my first non-Caleb Williams repeat selection in this series. In my 1.0, I had the Bears taking Murphy in the fourth round, but that’s why we update these: player values and rankings fluctuate throughout this process.
I think the Bears will sign a new edge rusher to complement Montez Sweat during free agency. However, I also want to work on acquiring more depth in that position during the draft, and I believe Gabriel Murphy from UCLA could be a good fit.
Murphy shows promise as a potential third-down pass rusher in the NFL. His athletic ability and flexibility are evident when you watch him play, traits that helped him succeed in college and be effective in defensive line stunts.
Nevertheless, there’s room for improvement in his hand technique. Murphy currently lacks precision and timing in his initial hand movements, hindering his ability to disengage from blockers effectively. Despite his agility and potential, he must improve his handwork and add more diverse pass-rushing moves.
Round 3, Pick 78: WR Brenden Rice, USC
Not having a second-round pick (Montez Sweat trade) and being unable to get back into the second round (Justin Fields’ soft market) forced me to move back from No. 9 to add another third-round pick. It also placed some extra emphasis on the center position, as did the Bears trade for Ryan Bates this week. Bates is a swing interior offensive lineman and a good one at that. Adding JPJ to that mix leaves the offensive line in excellent shape.
Unfortunately, it erased the chance to take one of the top wide receivers in the first (and second round). So, this pick is prefaced with this: the Bears need to add to the receiver room in free agency. Think Calvin Ridley, Gabe Davis, or Tyler Boyd.
Rice possesses exceptional football intelligence. He has a comprehensive understanding of releases, route running, and hand techniques. With experience in special teams as a returner, he plays a physical brand of football. Although he lacks sudden feet, he has good build-up speed and catches with quick, strong hands. While there are some limitations, he has enough potential to project as an early backup with upward mobility.
Rice was Caleb Williams’ safety blanket at USC in 2023. Their ability to hook up in all areas and levels of the field was evident throughout the tape. He was also Williams’ top touchdown target, logging 12 touchdowns (he averaged a touchdown every 3.75 catches) for the Trojans. Rice does a good job of setting up corners when breaking off short slants, has excellent physicality at the catch point, and consistently outworks defenders for 50/50 balls.
Round 4, Pick 108 (via NYG): RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
The Bears need to add a running back to the mix, with Khalil Herbert entering the last year of his rookie deal (and likely gone after this season) and Roschon Johnson having a good but not great rookie campaign.
Braelon Allen has great size and frame and is an enormous runner with an overbearing athletic build. He builds up speed in the open field and has a devastating stiff arm. While the youngest player in the draft (he turned 20 in January) has room to improve his burst at the line of scrimmage and his cuts, he shows excellent instincts in short-yardage situations and an exceptional understanding and ability when it comes to pass blocking, something the Bears could use in their backfield.
Allen could be an excellent fit for the Bears immediately as a runner or pass blocker in second—and third-down short-yardage situations, and he has room to grow as a runner.
Round 4, Pick 111: TE Theo Johnson, Penn State
Theo Johnson wowed at the NFL Scouting Combine and could be a perfect 1-2 punch for the Bears at tight end opposite Cole Kmet. Johnson was a wide receiver in high school and moved to tight end at Penn State thanks to his 6-2 257-pound frame.
Johnson displays rapid acceleration off the snap and gains momentum as he moves down the field, providing his quarterback with a sizable target thanks to his large frame, sturdy hands, and impressive catching range. While he holds his own as a blocker, there is room for improvement in his grasp of leverage and his assertiveness on the field at the professional level.
Round 4, Pick 123 (via PHI): DI Tyler Davis, Clemson
Tyler Davis is a skilled defensive lineman who wins the leverage battle at the line of scrimmage. He has good hand placement and is an effective puncher, which enables him to make his way into the backfield. Davis has a strong motor and always puts in maximum effort. He is built sturdily and uses quickness off the ball to create consistent surge/penetration in both run and passing games. However, he has shorter arms and is unsuitable for the 0 or 1 technique. Davis is best suited as a 3-technique IDL, where he can use his quickness and power to attack gaps and make an impact in the backfield.
Final Thoughts
The Ryan Bates trade and the Justin Fields market were felt in this draft. At this point, I see the Bears needing to move down from No. 9 to add another mid-round pick, with Fields’ soft market shutting them out of getting back into the second round and the Bates trade costing them a fifth-round pick. So, we did that and landed the best center in the draft at No. 16.
Coming away from the first round with Williams, JPJ, and a third-round pick would be an excellent start to the Bears draft. Landing Gabriel Murphy gives the Bears an excellent edge rushing prospect opposite Montez Sweat. Murphy is a prospect I like for the Bears in that range in most scenarios and a repeat selection in this series.
I like the Brenden Rice pick in that spot. It will feel much less exciting than one of the big three or even second-tier guys projected to be first or second-rounders, but I felt that shoring up the offensive line and netting more picks was the better move for the Bears. But that shouldn’t take away from the player and the player’s value in that spot.
This scenario will require the Bears to spend on a pass catcher in free agency, and they won’t be top-of-the-market pass catchers. Still, the addition of a receiver via free agency (i.e., Calvin Ridley), paired with the addition of Rice and Theo Johnson at tight end, two picks after in this draft, would give Caleb Williams D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, Brenden Rice, Theo Johnson, and a free agent wide receiver to work with. More importantly, it would give him an offensive line that will rank in the top half to the top third in the league.
The next mock draft will not come until late March after the dust settles in free agency. Speaking of free agency, we’ll be discussing free agency targets for the Bears on both sides of the ball on Thursday and Friday.
