NEWSLETTER
Every week I throw together an NHL Notes post in which I go around the NHL and try to find some of the league’s biggest storylines to keep us informed of stuff going on that isn’t necessarily Blackhawks related (a new one is coming later today, shameless plug).
When I’m lucky, there’s a Blackhawks nugget worth covering, but this season it’s almost always something about Connor Bedard. And there’s nothing wrong with that; Bedard’s rookie year has been everything we hoped. But this week, another member of the Blackhawks grabbed my attention — so much so that he’s getting a standalone story.
Alex Vlasic has had an outstanding first full NHL season, but just how good surprised me.
Alex Vlasic: Shutdown Defender
A story at The Athletic titled “Who are the NHL’s best shutdown defensemen and why are they so valuable” by Harman Dayal caught my eye this week. I didn’t think I’d find a Blackhawk on there, but Drew Doughty the cover photo and figured his elite level of play at age 34 might be worth a look. And it is: Doughty is still very good. It’s amazing how he’s still playing at such a high level this year. But do you know who’s been better at limiting quality scoring chances this season? Alex Vlasic.
I linked the post above, and you should totally give it a read. Vlasic doesn’t have the tenure as an NHL defenseman that Doughty does; the Kings’ veteran is a surefire Hall of Famer. The article wanted to highlight the best defensive defensemen this season since really the Norris Trophy has kind of become the defenseman with the highest point total.
Dayal used multiple filters to meet the criteria to qualify for his piece: 40+ games played, ranks among the top 128 defensemen in the league in 5v5 ice time per game, 5v5 goals-against rate below league average, and tougher matchups than league average.
So, essentially, Dayal looked at defensemen who play a lot of minutes, get top assignments in 5v5 and have appeared in enough games. After filtering out those who didn’t qualify, he used a metric called Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). Here’s how he explains the metric:
This RAPM tool can identify the players with the strongest impact on suppressing quality scoring chances through their expected goals model. Most importantly, this tool can level the playing field by giving us a player’s isolated defensive impact after accounting for variables such as teammate quality (who they share the ice with on shifts), opposition quality, zone starts (some players start in the defensive zone more often than others) and more.
With that in mind, here’s his list of the best shutdown defenders in the NHL this season — and where Vlasic ranks:
Side Note: Yes I noticed that former Blackhawk Gustav Forsling is on the list. And no, I won’t forgive the previous regime for giving up on him too quickly, basically getting a few injury-plagued seasons of Calvin de Haan for him. It just makes me too sad to think about.
According to this model, Vlasic ranks as the second-best shutdown defender in the NHL this season. Which, all things considered, is wildly impressive; considering the Blackhawks’ below-average group of forwards, Chicago’s defensemen have had to carry even more weight defensively. Vlasic has played much of the year alongside Seth Jones. But, according to the metrics, Vlasic been tougher to play against.
The 22-year-old left-shot has logged the most minutes against “elite” competition of all Chicago defenders. Despite difficult top pair usage, Vlasic is driving the best expected goal share on the entire team (forwards included). Chicago has a near break-even goal differential during Vlasic’s minutes but has a whopping minus-73 goal differential when he’s on the bench at five-on-five.
That last line really stuck out to me, and I’m sure just about any Blackhawks follower who read it. The massive 5v5 goal differential between when Vlasic has been on the ice compared when he’s not is staggering. Again, Seth Jones certainly helps there too, but from day one this season Vlasic has looked like a certain building block on the blue line, and now there is actual statistical evidence to back it up.
Implications of Vlasic’s Breakout On Chicago’s Rebuild
Oviously the Hawks need more than just Bedard to emerge from their homegrown group of prospects. Looking back at the Blackhawks’ championship teams, there were several homegrown, mid-round draft picks who emerged as core or key pieces to those rosters.
Moral of the story: you need to find diamonds in the rough to win, and it certainly seems like Vlasic can join Bedard in the group of foundation pieces for the Blackhawks to build around.
As we get ready for the offseason, having Vlasic penciled in as a top-pair defenseman is one less question for Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson to have to answer. That being said, Vlasic is a restricted free agent this summer… so his next contract becomes paramount to the rebuild considering the value he’s providing at a young age.
Davidson still has a lot of work to do, and more prospects have to keep hitting. And that will certainly continue to happen. As Tab wrote yesterday, the prospect pool Davidson has built is incredibly impressive and puts the Hawks in a great spot going forward with this rebuild.
It’s impossible to look at just how good Vlasic has been this year and be anything but excited. It’s always nice when a player passes the eye test like Vlasic has thus far, but when the metrics start to back it up is when the excitement can really start to build.
Alex Vlasic has not only passed the analytics test this season, the 22-year-old former second-round pick has done so with flying colors.
